Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 27/09, 16:00

Prediction: IF Karlstad Fotboll vs Karlbergs BK

Team pages: IF Karlstad Fotboll · Karlbergs BK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

IF Karlstad Fotboll1.81

Karlbergs BK0.67

1X2

65% 22% 13%

IF Karlstad Fotboll Draw Karlbergs BK

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

IF Karlstad Fotboll 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDLLDD

Karlbergs BK 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDLWLL

Head-to-head

IF Karlstad Fotboll 4–1–0 Karlbergs BK (5 last)

Karlbergs BK0-0IF Karlstad Fotboll
IF Karlstad Fotboll1-0Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK2-3IF Karlstad Fotboll
Karlbergs BK2-4IF Karlstad Fotboll
IF Karlstad Fotboll2-1Karlbergs BK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IF Karlstad Fotboll 1455 · Karlbergs BK 1475

	IF Karlstad Fotboll	Draw	Karlbergs BK
Our model	64%	24%	12%
Market	66%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours IF Karlstad Fotboll: 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IF Karlstad Fotboll	Karlbergs BK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.36▼	Bet365 1.36
X	4.33 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	5.50 → 6.25▲	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:41 +17’	1.42	4.33	5.50
22:07 +4’	1.36▼	4.50▲	6.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IF Karlstad Fotboll 4–1–0 Karlbergs BK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	0-0 HT 0-0	IF Karlstad Fotboll
13/09/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	1-0 HT 0-0	Karlbergs BK
04/05/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	2-3 HT 1-0	IF Karlstad Fotboll
09/11/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	2-4 HT 0-0	IF Karlstad Fotboll
08/05/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-1 HT 0-1	Karlbergs BK

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	23	16	3	4	55	19	51
2	AFC Eskilstuna	23	13	4	6	41	30	43
3	Hammarby TFF	23	12	6	5	48	22	42
4	FC Arlanda	23	12	6	5	40	27	42
5	IF Karlstad Fotboll	23	11	6	6	35	23	39
6	FBK Karlstad	23	11	6	6	36	32	39
7	Enkopings SK	23	12	3	8	37	38	39
8	Assyriska Föreningen	23	9	5	9	42	40	32
9	Gefle IF	23	9	3	11	29	41	30
10	Umeå FC	23	8	5	10	31	37	29
11	Karlbergs BK	23	8	4	11	29	38	28
12	Sollentuna United FF	23	5	9	9	21	31	24
13	Vasalunds IF	23	6	6	11	34	48	24
14	Piteå IF	23	4	6	13	27	44	18
15	FC Järfälla	23	5	3	15	30	50	18
16	IFK Stocksund	23	3	5	15	43	58	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IF Karlstad Fotboll	Karlbergs BK
Enkopings SK	2-2 D	1-2 L
IFK Stocksund	1-2 L	2-0 W
AFC Eskilstuna	1-2 L	0-3 L
FC Järfälla	4-1 W	0-5 L
FC Arlanda	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: IF Karlstad Fotboll (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IF Karlstad Fotboll

LWWLLDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
16/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
12/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	10	7	L
05/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
29/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
22/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
15/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	4-1	6	2	W
02/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-1	6	2	W
27/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	3	6	L

Karlbergs BK

WWLWLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	6	0	L
17/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-5	5	3	L
12/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
06/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
31/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
23/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
15/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
07/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	6	1	L
01/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
24/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IF Karlstad Fotboll vs Karlbergs BK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IF Karlstad Fotboll win (65%). Probabilities: IF Karlstad Fotboll 65%, draw 22%, Karlbergs BK 13%.

How many goals are expected in IF Karlstad Fotboll vs Karlbergs BK?

The model expects 2.48 goals (IF Karlstad Fotboll 1.81 · Karlbergs BK 0.67), with a 60% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in IF Karlstad Fotboll vs Karlbergs BK?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.