Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 27/09, 12:00

Prediction: Umeå FC vs FBK Karlstad

Team pages: Umeå FC · FBK Karlstad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Umeå FC1.48

FBK Karlstad1.36

1X2

39% 26% 34%

Umeå FC Draw FBK Karlstad

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Umeå FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWWLWW

FBK Karlstad 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWWWDD

Head-to-head

Umeå FC 2–1–0 FBK Karlstad (3 last)

FBK Karlstad1-1Umeå FC
FBK Karlstad1-3Umeå FC
Umeå FC2-1FBK Karlstad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Umeå FC 1496 · FBK Karlstad 1510

	Umeå FC	Draw	FBK Karlstad
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	40%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Umeå FC: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Umeå FC	FBK Karlstad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.2	2.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:41 +10’	2.25	3.50	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Umeå FC 2–1–0 FBK Karlstad

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FBK Karlstad	1-1 HT 0-1	Umeå FC
12/10/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	FBK Karlstad	1-3 HT 0-1	Umeå FC
04/05/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	2-1 HT 1-1	FBK Karlstad

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	23	16	3	4	55	19	51
2	AFC Eskilstuna	23	13	4	6	41	30	43
3	Hammarby TFF	23	12	6	5	48	22	42
4	FC Arlanda	23	12	6	5	40	27	42
5	IF Karlstad Fotboll	23	11	6	6	35	23	39
6	FBK Karlstad	23	11	6	6	36	32	39
7	Enkopings SK	23	12	3	8	37	38	39
8	Assyriska Föreningen	23	9	5	9	42	40	32
9	Gefle IF	23	9	3	11	29	41	30
10	Umeå FC	23	8	5	10	31	37	29
11	Karlbergs BK	23	8	4	11	29	38	28
12	Sollentuna United FF	23	5	9	9	21	31	24
13	Vasalunds IF	23	6	6	11	34	48	24
14	Piteå IF	23	4	6	13	27	44	18
15	FC Järfälla	23	5	3	15	30	50	18
16	IFK Stocksund	23	3	5	15	43	58	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Umeå FC	FBK Karlstad
Piteå IF	2-0 W	4-3 W
FC Arlanda	2-1 W	1-5 L
Vasalunds IF	3-2 W	2-1 W
Enkopings SK	0-0 D	2-0 W
FC Järfälla	1-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Umeå FC

LLLLDWWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-0	6	1	W
16/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
13/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
06/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
30/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
09/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
02/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
28/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	11	4	L

FBK Karlstad

LLDWLWWWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
16/09	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
05/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-0	8	0	W
30/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	4-3	1	0	W
23/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-5	1-5	4	3	L
16/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
09/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
01/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
26/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-7	11	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Umeå FC vs FBK Karlstad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Umeå FC win (39%). Probabilities: Umeå FC 39%, draw 26%, FBK Karlstad 34%.

How many goals are expected in Umeå FC vs FBK Karlstad?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Umeå FC 1.48 · FBK Karlstad 1.36), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs FBK Karlstad?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.