Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 11/10, 16:00

Prediction: Gefle IF vs Piteå IF

Team pages: Gefle IF · Piteå IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Gefle IF1.5

Piteå IF0.97

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Gefle IF Draw Piteå IF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Gefle IF 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWLWLL

Piteå IF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLWLLWWD

Head-to-head

Gefle IF 3–1–1 Piteå IF (5 last)

Piteå IF0-2Gefle IF
Piteå IF1-4Gefle IF
Gefle IF2-2Piteå IF
Gefle IF1-0Piteå IF
Piteå IF2-0Gefle IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gefle IF 1491 · Piteå IF 1478

	Gefle IF	Draw	Piteå IF
Our model	48%	28%	23%
Market	50%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gefle IF: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gefle IF	Piteå IF
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.1	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.80▲	Pinn 1.83
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.61
2	3.80 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.73 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:51 +9’	1.73	3.60	3.80
22:52 +7’	1.80▲	3.50▼	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:28 +23’	1.83	3.62	3.72
22:40 +19’	1.83	3.61▼	3.73▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gefle IF 3–1–1 Piteå IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Piteå IF	0-2 HT 0-1	Gefle IF
18/09/22 Sweden 1.div Norra	Piteå IF	1-4 HT 1-2	Gefle IF
26/05/22 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	2-2 HT 1-0	Piteå IF
07/11/21 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	1-0 HT 1-0	Piteå IF
05/08/21 Sweden 1.div Norra	Piteå IF	2-0 HT 0-0	Gefle IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	25	18	3	4	60	20	57
2	FC Arlanda	25	14	6	5	46	28	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	25	14	5	6	47	34	47
4	Hammarby TFF	25	13	6	6	51	25	45
5	FBK Karlstad	25	12	7	6	41	35	43
6	Enkopings SK	25	13	3	9	38	40	42
7	IF Karlstad Fotboll	25	11	8	6	37	25	41
8	Assyriska Föreningen	25	9	5	11	43	45	32
9	Umeå FC	25	9	5	11	34	41	32
10	Karlbergs BK	25	9	5	11	33	41	32
11	Gefle IF	25	9	3	13	29	43	30
12	Sollentuna United FF	26	6	9	11	27	36	27
13	Vasalunds IF	25	7	6	12	36	52	27
14	Piteå IF	25	5	7	13	30	46	22
15	FC Järfälla	25	5	4	16	33	55	19
16	IFK Stocksund	26	3	6	17	45	64	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gefle IF	Piteå IF
Vasalunds IF	0-1 L	1-1 D
AFC Eskilstuna	1-0 W	0-1 L
FC Arlanda	0-2 L	0-0 D
FC Järfälla	3-1 W	3-1 W
IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-2 D	1-1 D
Assyriska Föreningen	2-1 W	2-1 W
Umeå FC	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gefle IF

LWWDLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
27/09	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
20/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
16/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
12/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
05/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
29/08	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
23/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
15/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-5	9	3	L

Piteå IF

DDDLWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
27/09	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
20/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	3-1	5	7	W
16/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
13/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
06/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
30/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	3-4	8	0	L
23/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
16/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	8	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gefle IF vs Piteå IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gefle IF win (49%). Probabilities: Gefle IF 49%, draw 27%, Piteå IF 24%.

How many goals are expected in Gefle IF vs Piteå IF?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Gefle IF 1.5 · Piteå IF 0.97), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Piteå IF?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.