Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 18/10, 16:00

Prediction: Hammarby TFF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll

Team pages: Hammarby TFF · IF Karlstad Fotboll

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Hammarby TFF1.36

IF Karlstad Fotboll1.07

1X2

43% 28% 29%

Hammarby TFF Draw IF Karlstad Fotboll

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hammarby TFF 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLWDLWLL

IF Karlstad Fotboll 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDDDDW

Head-to-head

Hammarby TFF 3–2–1 IF Karlstad Fotboll (6 last)

IF Karlstad Fotboll0-2Hammarby TFF
IF Karlstad Fotboll1-2Hammarby TFF
Hammarby TFF3-1IF Karlstad Fotboll
Hammarby TFF1-1IF Karlstad Fotboll
IF Karlstad Fotboll2-0Hammarby TFF
Hammarby TFF1-1IF Karlstad Fotboll

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hammarby TFF 1484 · IF Karlstad Fotboll 1439

	Hammarby TFF	Draw	IF Karlstad Fotboll
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby TFF (rating 1484 vs 1439).
H2H favours Hammarby TFF: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hammarby TFF	IF Karlstad Fotboll
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.2	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.13 ★
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	3.20 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:15 +54’	1.95	3.50	3.20
22:34 +3’	2.05▲	3.40▼	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:53 +27’	2.13	3.33	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 3 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hammarby TFF 3–2–1 IF Karlstad Fotboll

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	0-2 HT 0-1	Hammarby TFF
09/11/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	1-2 HT 0-1	Hammarby TFF
14/06/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	3-1 HT 1-0	IF Karlstad Fotboll
14/09/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	1-1 HT 1-1	IF Karlstad Fotboll
01/04/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-0 HT 0-0	Hammarby TFF
12/08/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	1-1 HT 0-0	IF Karlstad Fotboll

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	26	19	3	4	63	21	60
2	FC Arlanda	26	14	6	6	46	31	48
3	Enkopings SK	27	15	3	9	42	41	48
4	AFC Eskilstuna	26	14	5	7	48	37	47
5	Hammarby TFF	26	13	6	7	51	26	45
6	IF Karlstad Fotboll	26	12	8	6	40	25	44
7	FBK Karlstad	26	12	7	7	41	36	43
8	Assyriska Föreningen	26	10	5	11	44	45	35
9	Umeå FC	26	10	5	11	36	42	35
10	Karlbergs BK	26	9	6	11	36	44	33
11	Gefle IF	26	9	4	13	32	46	31
12	Vasalunds IF	26	7	7	12	39	55	28
13	Sollentuna United FF	26	6	9	11	27	36	27
14	Piteå IF	26	5	8	13	33	49	23
15	FC Järfälla	26	5	4	17	34	57	19
16	IFK Stocksund	27	3	6	18	46	67	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hammarby TFF	IF Karlstad Fotboll
Enkopings SK	0-1 L	2-2 D
IFK Stocksund	2-1 W	1-2 L
FC Arlanda	2-4 L	3-0 W
Sollentuna United FF	1-0 W	1-2 L
Karlbergs BK	0-0 D	1-1 D
Piteå IF	1-1 D	1-1 D
AFC Eskilstuna	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hammarby TFF

LDDLWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-1	9	1	L
04/10	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
25/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
21/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-3	2-4	6	2	L
17/09	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
12/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-3	5	2	L
31/08	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
23/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
14/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	6	0	L

IF Karlstad Fotboll

LLDLLDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
03/10	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
27/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
19/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
16/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
12/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	10	7	L
05/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
29/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
22/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
15/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hammarby TFF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hammarby TFF win (43%). Probabilities: Hammarby TFF 43%, draw 28%, IF Karlstad Fotboll 29%.

How many goals are expected in Hammarby TFF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Hammarby TFF 1.36 · IF Karlstad Fotboll 1.07), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hammarby TFF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.