Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: FC Arlanda vs FC Järfälla

Team pages: FC Arlanda · FC Järfälla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

FC Arlanda2.43

FC Järfälla1.28

1X2

62% 20% 18%

FC Arlanda Draw FC Järfälla

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Arlanda 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Järfälla 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Arlanda 5–1 FC Järfälla (6 last)

FC Järfälla0-2FC Arlanda
FC Järfälla2-3FC Arlanda
FC Järfälla0-1FC Arlanda
FC Arlanda3-0FC Järfälla
FC Arlanda2-1FC Järfälla
FC Järfälla3-0FC Arlanda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Arlanda 1540 · FC Järfälla 1396

	FC Arlanda	Draw	FC Järfälla
Our model	62%	20%	18%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Arlanda (rating 1540 vs 1396).
H2H favours FC Arlanda: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Arlanda	FC Järfälla
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.6	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.5	1.5 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:26 +11’	1.44	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Arlanda 5–0–1 FC Järfälla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/06/26 Sweden Cup	FC Järfälla	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Arlanda
13/06/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Järfälla	2-3 HT 1-1	FC Arlanda
15/09/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	FC Järfälla	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Arlanda
18/05/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	FC Arlanda	3-0 HT 0-0	FC Järfälla
07/10/23 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	FC Arlanda	2-1 HT 0-1	FC Järfälla
25/06/23 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	FC Järfälla	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Arlanda

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	26	19	3	4	63	21	60
2	FC Arlanda	26	14	6	6	46	31	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	26	14	5	7	48	37	47
4	Hammarby TFF	26	13	6	7	51	26	45
5	Enkopings SK	26	14	3	9	39	40	45
6	IF Karlstad Fotboll	26	12	8	6	40	25	44
7	FBK Karlstad	26	12	7	7	41	36	43
8	Assyriska Föreningen	26	10	5	11	44	45	35
9	Umeå FC	26	10	5	11	36	42	35
10	Karlbergs BK	26	9	6	11	36	44	33
11	Gefle IF	26	9	4	13	32	46	31
12	Vasalunds IF	26	7	7	12	39	55	28
13	Sollentuna United FF	26	6	9	11	27	36	27
14	Piteå IF	26	5	8	13	33	49	23
15	FC Järfälla	26	5	4	17	34	57	19
16	IFK Stocksund	26	3	6	17	45	64	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Arlanda	FC Järfälla
Gefle IF	2-0 W	1-3 L
Karlbergs BK	0-1 L	5-0 W
Umeå FC	1-2 L	1-2 L
IFK Stocksund	3-2 W	1-1 D
FBK Karlstad	5-1 W	0-3 L
FC Stockholm Internazionale	1-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Arlanda (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Arlanda

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
04/10	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
27/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
21/09	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	3-0	4-2	1	2	W
16/09	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
12/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
29/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
23/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	5-1	5-1	4	3	W
16/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-4	0	1	L

FC Järfälla

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-2	8	3	L
03/10	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
26/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	2-4	5	5	L
20/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-3	6	7	L
17/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
12/09	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
05/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-3	6	0	L
29/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
21/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
15/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Arlanda vs FC Järfälla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Arlanda win (62%). Probabilities: FC Arlanda 62%, draw 20%, FC Järfälla 18%.

How many goals are expected in FC Arlanda vs FC Järfälla?

The model expects 3.71 goals (FC Arlanda 2.43 · FC Järfälla 1.28), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Arlanda vs FC Järfälla?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.