Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 18/10, 14:00

Prediction: Umeå FC vs Assyriska Föreningen

Team pages: Umeå FC · Assyriska Föreningen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Umeå FC1.9

Assyriska Föreningen1.46

1X2

47% 24% 29%

Umeå FC Draw Assyriska Föreningen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Umeå FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWWLWW

Assyriska Föreningen 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Umeå FC 5–1 Assyriska Föreningen (6 last)

Assyriska Föreningen1-5Umeå FC
Umeå FC3-1Assyriska Föreningen
Assyriska Föreningen1-2Umeå FC
Assyriska Föreningen2-1Umeå FC
Umeå FC2-1Assyriska Föreningen
Umeå FC3-1Assyriska Föreningen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Umeå FC 1548 · Assyriska Föreningen 1489

	Umeå FC	Draw	Assyriska Föreningen
Our model	47%	24%	29%
Market	47%	24%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Umeå FC (rating 1548 vs 1489).
H2H favours Umeå FC: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Umeå FC	Assyriska Föreningen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.70

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:47 +5’	1.91	3.70	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Umeå FC 5–0–1 Assyriska Föreningen

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Assyriska Föreningen	1-5 HT 1-0	Umeå FC
04/08/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	3-1 HT 0-1	Assyriska Föreningen
30/06/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Assyriska Föreningen	1-2 HT 0-1	Umeå FC
14/11/21 Sweden 1.div Norra	Assyriska Föreningen	2-1 HT 1-1	Umeå FC
23/05/21 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Assyriska Föreningen
14/10/18 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Assyriska Föreningen

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	26	19	3	4	63	21	60
2	FC Arlanda	26	14	6	6	46	31	48
3	Enkopings SK	27	15	3	9	42	41	48
4	AFC Eskilstuna	26	14	5	7	48	37	47
5	Hammarby TFF	26	13	6	7	51	26	45
6	IF Karlstad Fotboll	26	12	8	6	40	25	44
7	FBK Karlstad	26	12	7	7	41	36	43
8	Assyriska Föreningen	26	10	5	11	44	45	35
9	Umeå FC	26	10	5	11	36	42	35
10	Karlbergs BK	26	9	6	11	36	44	33
11	Gefle IF	26	9	4	13	32	46	31
12	Vasalunds IF	26	7	7	12	39	55	28
13	Sollentuna United FF	26	6	9	11	27	36	27
14	Piteå IF	26	5	8	13	33	49	23
15	FC Järfälla	26	5	4	17	34	57	19
16	IFK Stocksund	27	3	6	18	46	67	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Umeå FC	Assyriska Föreningen
FC Järfälla	2-1 W	2-0 W
FBK Karlstad	1-3 L	1-0 W
IFK Stocksund	3-0 W	2-1 W
Piteå IF	2-0 W	1-2 L
FC Stockholm Internazionale	0-4 L	0-3 L
Vasalunds IF	3-2 W	5-1 W
Enkopings SK	0-0 D	1-2 L
Gefle IF	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Assyriska Föreningen (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Umeå FC

LDWWLWWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
04/10	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
27/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	5	1	L
20/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-0	6	1	W
16/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
13/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
06/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
30/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	9	3	L

Assyriska Föreningen

WLWWLLWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
03/10	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-3	6	6	L
27/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	10	4	L
21/09	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	5-1	3	4	W
17/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	2-5	7	4	L
10/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
04/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
29/08	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
23/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
15/08	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Umeå FC vs Assyriska Föreningen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Umeå FC win (47%). Probabilities: Umeå FC 47%, draw 24%, Assyriska Föreningen 29%.

How many goals are expected in Umeå FC vs Assyriska Föreningen?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Umeå FC 1.9 · Assyriska Föreningen 1.46), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs Assyriska Föreningen?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.