Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: FBK Karlstad vs Karlbergs BK

Team pages: FBK Karlstad · Karlbergs BK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

FBK Karlstad1.58

Karlbergs BK1.2

1X2

46% 26% 28%

FBK Karlstad Draw Karlbergs BK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FBK Karlstad 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Karlbergs BK 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FBK Karlstad 1–1–1 Karlbergs BK (3 last)

Karlbergs BK1-1FBK Karlstad
Karlbergs BK1-2FBK Karlstad
FBK Karlstad0-3Karlbergs BK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FBK Karlstad 1540 · Karlbergs BK 1474

	FBK Karlstad	Draw	Karlbergs BK
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBK Karlstad (rating 1540 vs 1474).
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FBK Karlstad	Karlbergs BK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5.1	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:10 +14’	1.95	3.60	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FBK Karlstad 1–1–1 Karlbergs BK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	1-1 HT 0-0	FBK Karlstad
21/09/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	1-2 HT 0-1	FBK Karlstad
27/04/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	FBK Karlstad	0-3 HT 0-2	Karlbergs BK

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	26	19	3	4	63	21	60
2	FC Arlanda	26	14	6	6	46	31	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	26	14	5	7	48	37	47
4	Hammarby TFF	26	13	6	7	51	26	45
5	Enkopings SK	26	14	3	9	39	40	45
6	IF Karlstad Fotboll	26	12	8	6	40	25	44
7	FBK Karlstad	26	12	7	7	41	36	43
8	Assyriska Föreningen	26	10	5	11	44	45	35
9	Umeå FC	26	10	5	11	36	42	35
10	Karlbergs BK	26	9	6	11	36	44	33
11	Gefle IF	26	9	4	13	32	46	31
12	Vasalunds IF	26	7	7	12	39	55	28
13	Sollentuna United FF	26	6	9	11	27	36	27
14	Piteå IF	26	5	8	13	33	49	23
15	FC Järfälla	26	5	4	17	34	57	19
16	IFK Stocksund	26	3	6	17	45	64	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FBK Karlstad	Karlbergs BK
AFC Eskilstuna	2-2 D	0-3 L
Sollentuna United FF	0-0 D	3-2 W
IF Karlstad Fotboll	0-0 D	1-1 D
Vasalunds IF	2-1 W	3-3 D
FC Järfälla	3-0 W	0-5 L
Piteå IF	4-3 W	0-3 L
FC Arlanda	1-5 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FBK Karlstad (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FBK Karlstad

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
03/10	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	2-2	4	2	D
27/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	0	1	W
19/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
16/09	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
05/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-0	8	0	W
30/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	4-3	1	0	W
23/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-5	1-5	4	3	L
16/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	7	4	W

Karlbergs BK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
02/10	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-2	3-2	4	7	W
27/09	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
20/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	6	0	L
17/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-5	5	3	L
12/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
06/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
31/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
23/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
15/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FBK Karlstad vs Karlbergs BK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FBK Karlstad win (46%). Probabilities: FBK Karlstad 46%, draw 26%, Karlbergs BK 28%.

How many goals are expected in FBK Karlstad vs Karlbergs BK?

The model expects 2.79 goals (FBK Karlstad 1.58 · Karlbergs BK 1.2), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FBK Karlstad vs Karlbergs BK?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.