Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 09/08, 13:00

Prediction: Umeå FC vs AFC Eskilstuna

Team pages: Umeå FC · AFC Eskilstuna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Umeå FC1.64

AFC Eskilstuna1.39

1X2

43% 24% 33%

Umeå FC Draw AFC Eskilstuna

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Umeå FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLDDWLLL

AFC Eskilstuna 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Umeå FC 2–3 AFC Eskilstuna (5 last)

AFC Eskilstuna1-0Umeå FC
AFC Eskilstuna3-1Umeå FC
Umeå FC3-1AFC Eskilstuna
Umeå FC0-3AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna1-3Umeå FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Umeå FC 1472 · AFC Eskilstuna 1573

	Umeå FC	Draw	AFC Eskilstuna
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	44%	23%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AFC Eskilstuna (rating 1472 vs 1573).
H2H favours AFC Eskilstuna: 3-0-2.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Umeå FC	AFC Eskilstuna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.6	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.90

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 19:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.01
X	3.70 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90
2	2.63 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.02 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:38 +7’	2.15	3.70	2.63
13:54 +10’	2.05▼	3.90▲	2.70▲
19:37 +6’	2.00▼	3.90	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:52 +11’	2.10	3.83	2.82
19:42 +1’	2.01▼	3.81▼	3.02▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Umeå FC 2–0–3 AFC Eskilstuna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	AFC Eskilstuna	1-0 HT 0-0	Umeå FC
15/09/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	AFC Eskilstuna	3-1 HT 1-1	Umeå FC
23/06/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	3-1 HT 0-1	AFC Eskilstuna
27/09/20 Sweden Superettan	Umeå FC	0-3 HT 0-2	AFC Eskilstuna
27/06/20 Sweden Superettan	AFC Eskilstuna	1-3 HT 1-0	Umeå FC

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	15	11	2	2	43	12	35
2	IF Karlstad Fotboll	15	10	3	2	24	10	33
3	FC Stockholm Internazionale	15	9	3	3	32	14	30
4	FC Arlanda	15	8	5	2	24	15	29
5	Enkopings SK	16	9	1	6	27	26	28
6	FBK Karlstad	15	7	3	5	23	22	24
7	AFC Eskilstuna	15	6	4	5	24	24	22
8	Karlbergs BK	16	6	3	7	26	25	21
9	Assyriska Föreningen	15	4	5	6	24	29	17
10	Gefle IF	15	5	2	8	19	29	17
11	Umeå FC	15	4	4	7	20	25	16
12	Vasalunds IF	15	4	4	7	21	31	16
13	FC Järfälla	15	4	3	8	21	31	15
14	Sollentuna United FF	15	2	8	5	13	20	14
15	Piteå IF	15	2	3	10	16	34	9
16	IFK Stocksund	15	1	5	9	28	38	8

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Umeå FC	AFC Eskilstuna
Piteå IF	2-0 W	2-2 D
Sollentuna United FF	1-1 D	4-1 W
Assyriska Föreningen	5-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Umeå FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Umeå FC

DWDLDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
28/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	11	4	L
21/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
12/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
07/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
31/05	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
24/05	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
17/05	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
14/05	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	5-1	12	4	W
09/05	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	2-2	4	8	D

AFC Eskilstuna

WDLWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
26/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
21/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-2	9	2	D
14/06	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
09/06	Konyaspor KIF Sweden Cup Qualification	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
04/06	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	3-2	4	4	W
30/05	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
24/05	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-3	4	6	L
18/05	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
13/05	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	0	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Umeå FC vs AFC Eskilstuna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Umeå FC win (43%). Probabilities: Umeå FC 43%, draw 24%, AFC Eskilstuna 33%.

How many goals are expected in Umeå FC vs AFC Eskilstuna?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Umeå FC 1.64 · AFC Eskilstuna 1.39), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs AFC Eskilstuna?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.