Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 15/08, 13:00

Prediction: Gefle IF vs Umeå FC

Team pages: Gefle IF · Umeå FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Gefle IF1.58

Umeå FC1.43

1X2

41% 26% 34%

Gefle IF Draw Umeå FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gefle IF 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLDLLWWL

Umeå FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWLLLL

Head-to-head

Gefle IF 2–2–2 Umeå FC (6 last)

Umeå FC2-2Gefle IF
Gefle IF1-0Umeå FC
Umeå FC0-1Gefle IF
Umeå FC2-1Gefle IF
Gefle IF2-2Umeå FC
Gefle IF1-2Umeå FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gefle IF 1472 · Umeå FC 1460

	Gefle IF	Draw	Umeå FC
Our model	40%	26%	34%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gefle IF	Umeå FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.2	3.1 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:44 +9’	2.20	3.60	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gefle IF 2–2–2 Umeå FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	2-2 HT 2-1	Gefle IF
22/10/22 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	1-0 HT 0-0	Umeå FC
23/04/22 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Gefle IF
16/10/21 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Gefle IF
01/05/21 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	2-2 HT 1-0	Umeå FC
24/08/19 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	1-2 HT 0-1	Umeå FC

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	16	11	3	2	44	13	36
2	IF Karlstad Fotboll	16	11	3	2	28	11	36
3	FC Stockholm Internazionale	16	9	3	4	32	16	30
4	FC Arlanda	16	8	6	2	24	15	30
5	Enkopings SK	16	9	1	6	27	26	28
6	AFC Eskilstuna	16	7	4	5	27	25	25
7	FBK Karlstad	16	7	4	5	24	23	25
8	Karlbergs BK	16	6	3	7	26	25	21
9	Assyriska Föreningen	16	5	5	6	27	29	20
10	Vasalunds IF	16	5	4	7	23	31	19
11	Gefle IF	16	5	2	9	19	34	17
12	Umeå FC	16	4	4	8	21	28	16
13	FC Järfälla	16	4	3	9	22	35	15
14	Sollentuna United FF	16	2	8	6	13	23	14
15	IFK Stocksund	16	2	5	9	33	38	11
16	Piteå IF	16	2	4	10	16	34	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gefle IF	Umeå FC
IFK Stocksund	0-5 L	2-2 D
Piteå IF	2-0 W	2-0 W
IF Karlstad Fotboll	0-2 L	0-2 L
FC Järfälla	0-4 L	1-3 L
Assyriska Föreningen	0-0 D	5-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Umeå FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gefle IF

DLWLDLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-5	9	3	L
01/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
27/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
18/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
13/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
10/06	Falu BS FK Sweden Cup	0-0	0-0	9	1	D
06/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
01/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-2	0	3	W
23/05	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-4	8	4	L
17/05	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	3	1	D

Umeå FC

WDLDDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
02/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
28/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	11	4	L
21/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
12/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
07/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
31/05	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
24/05	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
17/05	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
14/05	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	5-1	12	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gefle IF vs Umeå FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gefle IF win (41%). Probabilities: Gefle IF 41%, draw 26%, Umeå FC 34%.

How many goals are expected in Gefle IF vs Umeå FC?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Gefle IF 1.58 · Umeå FC 1.43), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Umeå FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.