Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 23/08, 18:00

Prediction: Assyriska Föreningen vs Gefle IF

Team pages: Assyriska Föreningen · Gefle IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Assyriska Föreningen1.65

Gefle IF1.21

1X2

47% 26% 27%

Assyriska Föreningen Draw Gefle IF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Assyriska Föreningen 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLLDWWWW

Gefle IF 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLWWLW

Head-to-head

Assyriska Föreningen 1–2–2 Gefle IF (5 last)

Gefle IF0-0Assyriska Föreningen
Assyriska Föreningen1-2Gefle IF
Gefle IF1-1Assyriska Föreningen
Assyriska Föreningen2-1Gefle IF
Gefle IF2-0Assyriska Föreningen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Assyriska Föreningen 1534 · Gefle IF 1492

	Assyriska Föreningen	Draw	Gefle IF
Our model	47%	27%	27%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Assyriska Föreningen (rating 1534 vs 1492).
H2H favours Gefle IF: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Assyriska Föreningen	Gefle IF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	0.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.60

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:10 +3’	1.90	3.60	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Assyriska Föreningen 1–2–2 Gefle IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	0-0 HT 0-0	Assyriska Föreningen
02/11/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Assyriska Föreningen	1-2 HT 0-1	Gefle IF
14/06/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	1-1 HT 0-0	Assyriska Föreningen
05/09/21 Sweden 1.div Norra	Assyriska Föreningen	2-1 HT 0-0	Gefle IF
04/06/21 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	2-0 HT 2-0	Assyriska Föreningen

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	17	11	3	3	44	14	36
2	FC Stockholm Internazionale	18	11	3	4	38	17	36
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	17	11	3	3	28	13	36
4	FC Arlanda	17	8	6	3	25	19	30
5	AFC Eskilstuna	17	8	4	5	28	25	28
6	FBK Karlstad	17	8	4	5	26	23	28
7	Enkopings SK	17	9	1	7	27	28	28
8	Karlbergs BK	17	7	3	7	28	25	24
9	Assyriska Föreningen	17	6	5	6	29	29	23
10	Vasalunds IF	17	5	5	7	24	32	20
11	Gefle IF	17	6	2	9	21	34	20
12	Sollentuna United FF	17	3	8	6	15	24	17
13	Umeå FC	17	4	4	9	21	30	16
14	FC Järfälla	18	4	3	11	23	39	15
15	IFK Stocksund	17	2	5	10	33	40	11
16	Piteå IF	17	2	5	10	17	35	11

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Assyriska Föreningen	Gefle IF
IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-0 W	0-2 L
FC Arlanda	0-2 L	3-2 W
IFK Stocksund	3-3 D	0-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Assyriska Föreningen (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Assyriska Föreningen

DDWLLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
09/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
01/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
26/06	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
21/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-2	6	2	D
14/06	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-1	11	4	L
07/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
02/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	3-0	4-2	3	4	W
23/05	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-3	6	5	D
17/05	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	3	1	D

Gefle IF

DLWLLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-5	9	3	L
01/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
27/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
18/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
13/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
06/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
01/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-2	0	3	W
23/05	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-4	8	4	L
17/05	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	3	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Assyriska Föreningen vs Gefle IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Assyriska Föreningen win (47%). Probabilities: Assyriska Föreningen 47%, draw 26%, Gefle IF 27%.

How many goals are expected in Assyriska Föreningen vs Gefle IF?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Assyriska Föreningen 1.65 · Gefle IF 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Assyriska Föreningen vs Gefle IF?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.