Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 23/08, 13:00

Prediction: Karlbergs BK vs AFC Eskilstuna

Team pages: Karlbergs BK · AFC Eskilstuna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Karlbergs BK1.64

AFC Eskilstuna1.49

1X2

41% 25% 34%

Karlbergs BK Draw AFC Eskilstuna

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Karlbergs BK 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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AFC Eskilstuna 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Karlbergs BK 2–1–2 AFC Eskilstuna (5 last)

AFC Eskilstuna3-2Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK4-2AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna0-2Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK0-1AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna1-1Karlbergs BK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Karlbergs BK 1546 · AFC Eskilstuna 1573

	Karlbergs BK	Draw	AFC Eskilstuna
Our model	40%	26%	34%
Market	41%	24%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Karlbergs BK	AFC Eskilstuna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	2.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.75

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 19:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.22 ★
X	3.90 → 3.75▼	Bet365 3.75
2	3.40 → 2.70▼	Pinn 2.71

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:53 +4’	1.80	3.90	3.40
00:45 +13’	2.00▲	3.75▼	2.90▼
20:53 +4’	2.05▲	3.70▼	2.75▼
00:23 +10’	2.20▲	3.75▲	2.60▼
19:33 +7’	2.10▼	3.75	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:27 +1’	1.90	3.56	3.27
11:22	2.13▲	3.68▲	2.85▼
20:57	2.30▲	3.68	2.60▼
12:00 +7’	2.31▲	3.68	2.59▼
19:28 +12’	2.22▼	3.68	2.71▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Karlbergs BK 2–1–2 AFC Eskilstuna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/06/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	AFC Eskilstuna	3-2 HT 0-1	Karlbergs BK
20/09/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	4-2 HT 3-1	AFC Eskilstuna
29/05/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	AFC Eskilstuna	0-2 HT 0-1	Karlbergs BK
20/10/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	0-1 HT 0-1	AFC Eskilstuna
09/06/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	AFC Eskilstuna	1-1 HT 1-1	Karlbergs BK

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	17	11	3	3	44	14	36
2	FC Stockholm Internazionale	18	11	3	4	38	17	36
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	17	11	3	3	28	13	36
4	FC Arlanda	17	8	6	3	25	19	30
5	AFC Eskilstuna	17	8	4	5	28	25	28
6	FBK Karlstad	17	8	4	5	26	23	28
7	Enkopings SK	17	9	1	7	27	28	28
8	Karlbergs BK	17	7	3	7	28	25	24
9	Assyriska Föreningen	17	6	5	6	29	29	23
10	Vasalunds IF	17	5	5	7	24	32	20
11	Gefle IF	17	6	2	9	21	34	20
12	Sollentuna United FF	17	3	8	6	15	24	17
13	Umeå FC	17	4	4	9	21	30	16
14	FC Järfälla	18	4	3	11	23	39	15
15	IFK Stocksund	17	2	5	10	33	40	11
16	Piteå IF	17	2	5	10	17	35	11

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Karlbergs BK	AFC Eskilstuna
Piteå IF	3-1 W	2-2 D
Vasalunds IF	4-0 W	0-3 L
Hammarby TFF	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Karlbergs BK (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Karlbergs BK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
07/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	6	1	L
01/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
24/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
18/06	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
14/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
04/06	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
31/05	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
23/05	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
16/05	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	1-3	10	5	L

AFC Eskilstuna

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
09/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	6	3	W
02/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
26/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
21/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-2	9	2	D
14/06	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
04/06	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	3-2	4	4	W
30/05	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
24/05	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-3	4	6	L
18/05	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Karlbergs BK vs AFC Eskilstuna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Karlbergs BK win (41%). Probabilities: Karlbergs BK 41%, draw 25%, AFC Eskilstuna 34%.

How many goals are expected in Karlbergs BK vs AFC Eskilstuna?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Karlbergs BK 1.64 · AFC Eskilstuna 1.49), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Karlbergs BK vs AFC Eskilstuna?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.