Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 23/08, 16:00

Prediction: FC Arlanda vs FBK Karlstad

Team pages: FC Arlanda · FBK Karlstad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

FC Arlanda1.56

FBK Karlstad1.23

1X2

44% 26% 29%

FC Arlanda Draw FBK Karlstad

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Arlanda 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWWLDL

FBK Karlstad 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLLWLLDW

Head-to-head

FC Arlanda 0–1–0 FBK Karlstad (1 last)

FBK Karlstad0-0FC Arlanda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Arlanda 1522 · FBK Karlstad 1499

	FC Arlanda	Draw	FBK Karlstad
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Arlanda	FBK Karlstad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.03
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.63
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.10 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:51 +13’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:33	2.16	3.49	2.93
21:03 +10’	2.08▼	3.56▲	3.03▲
00:41 +1’	2.03▼	3.63▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Arlanda 0–1–0 FBK Karlstad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FBK Karlstad	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Arlanda

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	17	11	3	3	44	14	36
2	FC Stockholm Internazionale	18	11	3	4	38	17	36
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	17	11	3	3	28	13	36
4	FC Arlanda	17	8	6	3	25	19	30
5	AFC Eskilstuna	17	8	4	5	28	25	28
6	FBK Karlstad	17	8	4	5	26	23	28
7	Enkopings SK	17	9	1	7	27	28	28
8	Karlbergs BK	17	7	3	7	28	25	24
9	Assyriska Föreningen	17	6	5	6	29	29	23
10	Vasalunds IF	17	5	5	7	24	32	20
11	Gefle IF	17	6	2	9	21	34	20
12	Sollentuna United FF	17	3	8	6	15	24	17
13	Umeå FC	17	4	4	9	21	30	16
14	FC Järfälla	18	4	3	11	23	39	15
15	IFK Stocksund	17	2	5	10	33	40	11
16	Piteå IF	17	2	5	10	17	35	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Arlanda	FBK Karlstad
FC Stockholm Internazionale	1-4 L	1-3 L
Hammarby TFF	1-5 L	1-1 D
IF Karlstad Fotboll	1-0 W	2-3 L
Assyriska Föreningen	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Arlanda

DDLWWWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-4	0	1	L
09/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
03/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-5	1	5	L
27/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	0	6	W
18/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
13/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
07/06	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
01/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-3	8	3	L
23/05	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
18/05	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	4	1	D

FBK Karlstad

DDDLLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
09/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
01/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
26/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-7	11	1	L
18/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
14/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
05/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
31/05	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
23/05	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
17/05	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	11	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Arlanda vs FBK Karlstad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Arlanda win (44%). Probabilities: FC Arlanda 44%, draw 26%, FBK Karlstad 29%.

How many goals are expected in FC Arlanda vs FBK Karlstad?

The model expects 2.8 goals (FC Arlanda 1.56 · FBK Karlstad 1.23), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Arlanda vs FBK Karlstad?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.