Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 06/09, 14:30

Prediction: FC Arlanda vs Umeå FC

Team pages: FC Arlanda · Umeå FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

FC Arlanda1.72

Umeå FC1.35

1X2

46% 25% 30%

FC Arlanda Draw Umeå FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Arlanda 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLDLWW

Umeå FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLLLDW

Head-to-head

FC Arlanda 1–0 Umeå FC (1 last)

Umeå FC0-1FC Arlanda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Arlanda 1551 · Umeå FC 1447

	FC Arlanda	Draw	Umeå FC
Our model	45%	26%	29%
Market	46%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Arlanda (rating 1551 vs 1447).
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Arlanda	Umeå FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	2.7 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.75

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 1.95▼	Pinn 2.00
X	3.70 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75
2	2.80 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.13 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:44 +24’	2.05	3.70	2.80
07:13 +1’	1.95▼	3.75▲	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:02 +6’	1.97	3.72	3.16
23:51	2.00▲	3.69▼	3.13▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Arlanda 1–0–0 Umeå FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Arlanda

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	19	12	3	4	41	17	39
2	Hammarby TFF	19	11	5	3	45	15	38
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	19	11	4	4	31	17	37
4	FC Arlanda	19	10	6	3	33	22	36
5	AFC Eskilstuna	19	10	4	5	33	26	34
6	FBK Karlstad	19	9	4	6	31	31	31
7	Assyriska Föreningen	20	8	5	7	34	32	29
8	Enkopings SK	19	9	2	8	27	31	29
9	Karlbergs BK	19	7	4	8	28	28	25
10	Gefle IF	19	7	3	9	25	37	24
11	Vasalunds IF	19	6	5	8	30	38	23
12	Umeå FC	19	5	5	9	24	32	20
13	Sollentuna United FF	19	4	8	7	18	27	20
14	FC Järfälla	19	4	3	12	23	41	15
15	Piteå IF	19	2	6	11	21	40	12
16	IFK Stocksund	20	2	5	13	39	49	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Arlanda	Umeå FC
IFK Stocksund	3-2 W	2-2 D
Piteå IF	0-0 D	2-0 W
FC Järfälla	3-2 W	1-3 L
Gefle IF	2-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Arlanda (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Arlanda

LWWWWLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
23/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	5-1	5-1	4	3	W
16/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-4	0	1	L
09/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
03/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-5	1	5	L
27/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	0	6	W
18/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
13/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
07/06	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
01/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-3	8	3	L

Umeå FC

DDWLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
09/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
02/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
28/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	11	4	L
21/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
12/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
07/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
31/05	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Arlanda vs Umeå FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Arlanda win (46%). Probabilities: FC Arlanda 46%, draw 25%, Umeå FC 30%.

How many goals are expected in FC Arlanda vs Umeå FC?

The model expects 3.06 goals (FC Arlanda 1.72 · Umeå FC 1.35), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Arlanda vs Umeå FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.