Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Gefle IF vs FC Järfälla

Team pages: Gefle IF · FC Järfälla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Gefle IF1.96

FC Järfälla1.03

1X2

58% 23% 19%

Gefle IF Draw FC Järfälla

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gefle IF 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Järfälla 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gefle IF 0–1 FC Järfälla (1 last)

FC Järfälla4-0Gefle IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gefle IF 1477 · FC Järfälla 1402

	Gefle IF	Draw	FC Järfälla
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gefle IF (rating 1477 vs 1402).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gefle IF	FC Järfälla
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	0.9 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.5 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/0/70%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	0.9 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:43 +20’	1.53	4.00	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gefle IF 0–0–1 FC Järfälla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Järfälla	4-0 HT 1-0	Gefle IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	20	13	3	4	44	17	42
2	Hammarby TFF	20	11	5	4	45	18	38
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	20	11	4	5	32	19	37
4	AFC Eskilstuna	20	11	4	5	35	27	37
5	FC Arlanda	20	10	6	4	34	24	36
6	FBK Karlstad	20	10	4	6	34	31	34
7	Enkopings SK	20	10	2	8	30	33	32
8	Assyriska Föreningen	20	8	5	7	34	32	29
9	Karlbergs BK	20	7	4	9	28	31	25
10	Gefle IF	20	7	3	10	25	38	24
11	Umeå FC	20	6	5	9	26	33	23
12	Sollentuna United FF	20	5	8	7	19	27	23
13	Vasalunds IF	20	6	5	9	32	41	23
14	Piteå IF	20	3	6	11	24	40	15
15	FC Järfälla	20	4	3	13	23	44	15
16	IFK Stocksund	20	2	5	13	39	49	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gefle IF	FC Järfälla
Sollentuna United FF	0-1 L	1-2 L
IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-2 D	1-4 L
Assyriska Föreningen	2-1 W	0-2 L
Umeå FC	2-0 W	3-1 W
IFK Stocksund	0-5 L	1-6 L
FC Stockholm Internazionale	0-2 L	0-2 L
Hammarby TFF	0-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Gefle IF (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gefle IF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
29/08	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
23/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
15/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-5	9	3	L
01/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
27/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
18/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
13/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
06/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	4	3	L

FC Järfälla

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-3	6	0	L
29/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
21/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
15/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
08/08	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-4	6	2	L
01/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	2	1	L
28/06	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
18/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
13/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-3	4	4	L
08/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-3	1-6	1	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gefle IF vs FC Järfälla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gefle IF win (58%). Probabilities: Gefle IF 58%, draw 23%, FC Järfälla 19%.

How many goals are expected in Gefle IF vs FC Järfälla?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Gefle IF 1.96 · FC Järfälla 1.03), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs FC Järfälla?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.