Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: FBK Karlstad vs Vasalunds IF

Team pages: FBK Karlstad · Vasalunds IF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

FBK Karlstad2.02

Vasalunds IF1.65

1X2

45% 24% 30%

FBK Karlstad Draw Vasalunds IF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FBK Karlstad 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDWLWW

Vasalunds IF 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLDWDWLL

Head-to-head

FBK Karlstad 1–1–1 Vasalunds IF (3 last)

Vasalunds IF1-3FBK Karlstad
FBK Karlstad1-2Vasalunds IF
Vasalunds IF0-0FBK Karlstad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FBK Karlstad 1510 · Vasalunds IF 1445

	FBK Karlstad	Draw	Vasalunds IF
Our model	46%	23%	31%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBK Karlstad (rating 1510 vs 1445).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FBK Karlstad	Vasalunds IF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.4	1.5 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:51 +12’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FBK Karlstad 1–1–1 Vasalunds IF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	1-3 HT 1-1	FBK Karlstad
14/09/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	FBK Karlstad	1-2 HT 1-1	Vasalunds IF
30/06/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	0-0 HT 0-0	FBK Karlstad

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	20	13	3	4	44	17	42
2	Hammarby TFF	20	11	5	4	45	18	38
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	20	11	4	5	32	19	37
4	AFC Eskilstuna	20	11	4	5	35	27	37
5	FC Arlanda	20	10	6	4	34	24	36
6	FBK Karlstad	20	10	4	6	34	31	34
7	Enkopings SK	20	10	2	8	30	33	32
8	Assyriska Föreningen	20	8	5	7	34	32	29
9	Karlbergs BK	20	7	4	9	28	31	25
10	Gefle IF	20	7	3	10	25	38	24
11	Umeå FC	20	6	5	9	26	33	23
12	Sollentuna United FF	20	5	8	7	19	27	23
13	Vasalunds IF	20	6	5	9	32	41	23
14	Piteå IF	20	3	6	11	24	40	15
15	FC Järfälla	20	4	3	13	23	44	15
16	IFK Stocksund	20	2	5	13	39	49	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FBK Karlstad	Vasalunds IF
Piteå IF	4-3 W	1-1 D
Enkopings SK	2-0 W	2-3 L
Assyriska Föreningen	0-2 L	1-3 L
Sollentuna United FF	2-0 W	1-1 D
FC Stockholm Internazionale	1-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FBK Karlstad (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FBK Karlstad

LLWLLDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-0	8	0	W
30/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	4-3	1	0	W
23/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-5	1-5	4	3	L
16/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
09/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
01/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
26/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-7	11	1	L
18/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
14/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
05/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-3	3	2	L

Vasalunds IF

LDLLDWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-3	3	0	L
30/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	2-3	10	4	L
23/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	4-3	6	2	W
16/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
09/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
03/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
26/06	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
18/06	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-3	0-4	8	5	L
14/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
08/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-4	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FBK Karlstad vs Vasalunds IF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FBK Karlstad win (45%). Probabilities: FBK Karlstad 45%, draw 24%, Vasalunds IF 30%.

How many goals are expected in FBK Karlstad vs Vasalunds IF?

The model expects 3.67 goals (FBK Karlstad 2.02 · Vasalunds IF 1.65), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FBK Karlstad vs Vasalunds IF?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.