Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 13/09, 13:00

Prediction: Umeå FC vs FC Stockholm Internazionale

Team pages: Umeå FC · FC Stockholm Internazionale

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Umeå FC0.91

FC Stockholm Internazionale2.05

1X2

15% 22% 63%

Umeå FC Draw FC Stockholm Internazionale

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Umeå FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLDWW

FC Stockholm Internazionale 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Umeå FC 2–4 FC Stockholm Internazionale (6 last)

FC Stockholm Internazionale3-0Umeå FC
Umeå FC2-4FC Stockholm Internazionale
FC Stockholm Internazionale1-2Umeå FC
FC Stockholm Internazionale2-1Umeå FC
Umeå FC4-3FC Stockholm Internazionale
FC Stockholm Internazionale2-1Umeå FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Umeå FC 1471 · FC Stockholm Internazionale 1592

	Umeå FC	Draw	FC Stockholm Internazionale
Our model	15%	22%	63%
Market	16%	21%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Stockholm Internazionale (rating 1471 vs 1592).
H2H favours FC Stockholm Internazionale: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Umeå FC	FC Stockholm Internazionale
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	2.7 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.1	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.75

X4.33

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.88

2 (-1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 5.75▼	Pinn 6.24
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.71 ★
2	1.40 → 1.42▲	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:24 +4’	6.00	4.33	1.40
07:05 +5’	5.75▼	4.33	1.42▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:28 +36’	6.20	4.68	1.40
16:10 +128’	6.24▲	4.71▲	1.39▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Umeå FC 2–0–4 FC Stockholm Internazionale

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Stockholm Internazionale	3-0 HT 0-0	Umeå FC
05/10/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	2-4 HT 0-2	FC Stockholm Internazionale
28/04/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Stockholm Internazionale	1-2 HT 0-1	Umeå FC
20/08/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Stockholm Internazionale	2-1 HT 1-1	Umeå FC
30/07/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	4-3 HT 2-2	FC Stockholm Internazionale
25/09/22 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Stockholm Internazionale	2-1 HT 1-1	Umeå FC

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	20	13	3	4	44	17	42
2	Hammarby TFF	21	12	5	4	46	18	41
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	21	11	4	6	33	21	37
4	AFC Eskilstuna	20	11	4	5	35	27	37
5	FBK Karlstad	21	11	4	6	36	32	37
6	FC Arlanda	21	10	6	5	34	25	36
7	Enkopings SK	21	11	2	8	32	34	35
8	Assyriska Föreningen	21	8	5	8	35	34	29
9	Karlbergs BK	21	8	4	9	29	31	28
10	Gefle IF	21	8	3	10	28	39	27
11	Umeå FC	20	6	5	9	26	33	23
12	Sollentuna United FF	21	5	8	8	19	28	23
13	Vasalunds IF	21	6	5	10	33	43	23
14	Piteå IF	20	3	6	11	24	40	15
15	FC Järfälla	21	4	3	14	24	47	15
16	IFK Stocksund	21	3	5	13	41	50	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Umeå FC	FC Stockholm Internazionale
FC Arlanda	2-1 W	4-1 W
Vasalunds IF	3-2 W	0-2 L
Enkopings SK	0-0 D	3-0 W
Gefle IF	0-2 L	2-0 W
FC Järfälla	1-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Stockholm Internazionale (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Umeå FC

DWLLLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
30/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
09/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
02/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
28/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	11	4	L
21/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
12/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
07/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	7	3	D

FC Stockholm Internazionale

WWWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-0	2	2	W
30/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
21/08	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
16/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	4-1	5	1	W
09/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	9	4	L
01/08	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	4-0	5	1	W
27/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
18/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	9	0	W
14/06	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-1	5	1	W
08/06	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	4-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Umeå FC vs FC Stockholm Internazionale?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Stockholm Internazionale win (63%). Probabilities: Umeå FC 15%, draw 22%, FC Stockholm Internazionale 63%.

How many goals are expected in Umeå FC vs FC Stockholm Internazionale?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Umeå FC 0.91 · FC Stockholm Internazionale 2.05), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs FC Stockholm Internazionale?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.