Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: IFK Stocksund vs Umeå FC

Team pages: IFK Stocksund · Umeå FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

IFK Stocksund1.65

Umeå FC1.86

1X2

34% 24% 42%

IFK Stocksund Draw Umeå FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Stocksund 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Umeå FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

IFK Stocksund 1–2–2 Umeå FC (5 last)

Umeå FC2-2IFK Stocksund
IFK Stocksund1-1Umeå FC
Umeå FC4-2IFK Stocksund
Umeå FC3-5IFK Stocksund
IFK Stocksund0-1Umeå FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Stocksund 1448 · Umeå FC 1470

	IFK Stocksund	Draw	Umeå FC
Our model	34%	24%	42%
Market	34%	23%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Umeå FC: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Stocksund	Umeå FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	2.2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.80

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.63▼	Pinn 2.66
X	3.90 → 3.80▼	Pinn 3.82
2	2.05 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.20 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:40 +4’	2.75	3.90	2.05
20:13 +17’	2.63▼	3.80▼	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:31 +13’	2.66	3.82	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Stocksund 1–2–2 Umeå FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	2-2 HT 0-1	IFK Stocksund
01/09/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	IFK Stocksund	1-1 HT 0-1	Umeå FC
09/05/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	4-2 HT 1-1	IFK Stocksund
10/09/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	3-5 HT 2-3	IFK Stocksund
04/06/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	IFK Stocksund	0-1 HT 0-1	Umeå FC

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	22	15	3	4	53	19	48
2	AFC Eskilstuna	22	13	4	5	41	29	43
3	Hammarby TFF	22	12	6	4	46	18	42
4	FC Arlanda	22	11	6	5	36	25	39
5	IF Karlstad Fotboll	22	11	5	6	33	21	38
6	FBK Karlstad	22	11	5	6	36	32	38
7	Enkopings SK	22	12	2	8	35	36	38
8	Assyriska Föreningen	22	8	5	9	37	39	29
9	Karlbergs BK	22	8	4	10	29	36	28
10	Gefle IF	22	8	3	11	28	41	27
11	Umeå FC	22	7	5	10	28	37	26
12	Vasalunds IF	22	6	6	10	33	43	24
13	Sollentuna United FF	22	5	8	9	21	31	23
14	FC Järfälla	22	5	3	14	29	47	18
15	Piteå IF	22	3	6	13	24	43	15
16	IFK Stocksund	22	3	5	14	43	55	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Stocksund	Umeå FC
FC Stockholm Internazionale	2-5 L	0-4 L
FC Arlanda	2-3 L	2-1 W
Vasalunds IF	3-4 L	3-2 W
Gefle IF	5-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Stocksund

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-5	2-5	5	2	L
12/09	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-1	2	7	W
04/09	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-2	2	4	L
29/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	2-3	8	6	L
23/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	3-4	5	2	L
15/08	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
08/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	5-0	6	3	W
01/08	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
27/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
18/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	3	7	L

Umeå FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
13/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
06/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
30/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
09/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
02/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
28/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	11	4	L
21/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-3	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Stocksund vs Umeå FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Umeå FC win (42%). Probabilities: IFK Stocksund 34%, draw 24%, Umeå FC 42%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Stocksund vs Umeå FC?

The model expects 3.5 goals (IFK Stocksund 1.65 · Umeå FC 1.86), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Stocksund vs Umeå FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.