Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 20/09, 16:00

Prediction: Karlbergs BK vs FC Stockholm Internazionale

Team pages: Karlbergs BK · FC Stockholm Internazionale

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Karlbergs BK0.87

FC Stockholm Internazionale1.95

1X2

16% 22% 62%

Karlbergs BK Draw FC Stockholm Internazionale

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Karlbergs BK 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Stockholm Internazionale 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Karlbergs BK 1–1–4 FC Stockholm Internazionale (6 last)

FC Stockholm Internazionale2-1Karlbergs BK
FC Stockholm Internazionale1-0Karlbergs BK
FC Stockholm Internazionale3-1Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK0-0FC Stockholm Internazionale
Karlbergs BK3-2FC Stockholm Internazionale
FC Stockholm Internazionale2-1Karlbergs BK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Karlbergs BK 1502 · FC Stockholm Internazionale 1603

	Karlbergs BK	Draw	FC Stockholm Internazionale
Our model	15%	23%	62%
Market	16%	21%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Stockholm Internazionale (rating 1502 vs 1603).
H2H favours FC Stockholm Internazionale: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Karlbergs BK	FC Stockholm Internazionale
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	2.9 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.33

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.82

2 (-1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.52
X	4.50 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.52 ★
2	1.40 → 1.42▲	Pinn 1.45

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:58 +2’	5.50	4.50	1.40
20:53 +1’	5.50	4.33▼	1.42▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:53 +7’	5.52	4.52	1.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Karlbergs BK 1–1–4 FC Stockholm Internazionale

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Stockholm Internazionale	2-1 HT 1-1	Karlbergs BK
28/03/26 Club Friendly List	FC Stockholm Internazionale	1-0 HT 1-0	Karlbergs BK
16/08/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Stockholm Internazionale	3-1 HT 1-1	Karlbergs BK
15/06/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Stockholm Internazionale
17/08/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	3-2 HT 1-2	FC Stockholm Internazionale
13/04/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Stockholm Internazionale	2-1 HT 0-0	Karlbergs BK

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	22	15	3	4	53	19	48
2	AFC Eskilstuna	22	13	4	5	41	29	43
3	Hammarby TFF	22	12	6	4	46	18	42
4	FC Arlanda	22	11	6	5	36	25	39
5	IF Karlstad Fotboll	22	11	5	6	33	21	38
6	FBK Karlstad	22	11	5	6	36	32	38
7	Enkopings SK	22	12	2	8	35	36	38
8	Assyriska Föreningen	22	8	5	9	37	39	29
9	Karlbergs BK	22	8	4	10	29	36	28
10	Gefle IF	22	8	3	11	28	41	27
11	Umeå FC	22	7	5	10	28	37	26
12	Vasalunds IF	22	6	6	10	33	43	24
13	Sollentuna United FF	22	5	8	9	21	31	23
14	FC Järfälla	22	5	3	14	29	47	18
15	Piteå IF	22	3	6	13	24	43	15
16	IFK Stocksund	22	3	5	14	43	55	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Karlbergs BK	FC Stockholm Internazionale
FC Järfälla	0-5 L	2-0 W
FC Arlanda	1-0 W	4-1 W
Hammarby TFF	0-0 D	3-0 W
IFK Stocksund	2-0 W	5-2 W
Enkopings SK	1-2 L	3-0 W
Vasalunds IF	4-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Stockholm Internazionale (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Karlbergs BK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-5	5	3	L
12/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
06/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
31/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
23/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
15/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
07/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	6	1	L
01/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
24/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
18/06	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	3-0	4-0	3	5	W

FC Stockholm Internazionale

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	5-0	5-2	6	2	W
13/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
05/09	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-0	2	2	W
30/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
21/08	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
16/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	4-1	5	1	W
09/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	9	4	L
01/08	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	4-0	5	1	W
27/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
18/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	9	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Karlbergs BK vs FC Stockholm Internazionale?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Stockholm Internazionale win (62%). Probabilities: Karlbergs BK 16%, draw 22%, FC Stockholm Internazionale 62%.

How many goals are expected in Karlbergs BK vs FC Stockholm Internazionale?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Karlbergs BK 0.87 · FC Stockholm Internazionale 1.95), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Karlbergs BK vs FC Stockholm Internazionale?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.