Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 21/09, 19:00

Prediction: FC Arlanda vs Hammarby TFF

Team pages: FC Arlanda · Hammarby TFF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

FC Arlanda1.12

Hammarby TFF1.78

1X2

23% 25% 52%

FC Arlanda Draw Hammarby TFF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Arlanda 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWLLW

Hammarby TFF 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLDDLWD

Head-to-head

FC Arlanda 1–2 Hammarby TFF (3 last)

Hammarby TFF5-1FC Arlanda
Hammarby TFF3-1FC Arlanda
FC Arlanda1-0Hammarby TFF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Arlanda 1502 · Hammarby TFF 1525

	FC Arlanda	Draw	Hammarby TFF
Our model	23%	26%	52%
Market	24%	24%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hammarby TFF: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Arlanda	Hammarby TFF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.8	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.75

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.83
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.81
2	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.76 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:55 +17’	3.80	3.75	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:54 +78’	3.83	3.81	1.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Arlanda 1–0–2 Hammarby TFF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/08/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	5-1 HT 1-0	FC Arlanda
05/10/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	3-1 HT 1-0	FC Arlanda
08/06/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	1-0 HT 0-0	Hammarby TFF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	22	15	3	4	53	19	48
2	AFC Eskilstuna	22	13	4	5	41	29	43
3	Hammarby TFF	22	12	6	4	46	18	42
4	IF Karlstad Fotboll	23	11	6	6	35	23	39
5	FC Arlanda	22	11	6	5	36	25	39
6	FBK Karlstad	23	11	6	6	36	32	39
7	Enkopings SK	23	12	3	8	37	38	39
8	Assyriska Föreningen	22	8	5	9	37	39	29
9	Karlbergs BK	22	8	4	10	29	36	28
10	Gefle IF	22	8	3	11	28	41	27
11	Umeå FC	22	7	5	10	28	37	26
12	Vasalunds IF	22	6	6	10	33	43	24
13	Sollentuna United FF	23	5	9	9	21	31	24
14	FC Järfälla	22	5	3	14	29	47	18
15	Piteå IF	22	3	6	13	24	43	15
16	IFK Stocksund	22	3	5	14	43	55	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Arlanda	Hammarby TFF
Karlbergs BK	0-1 L	0-0 D
FBK Karlstad	5-1 W	1-1 D
FC Stockholm Internazionale	1-4 L	0-3 L
Piteå IF	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Arlanda

WWLDLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
12/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
29/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
23/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	5-1	5-1	4	3	W
16/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-4	0	1	L
09/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
03/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-5	1	5	L
27/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	0	6	W
18/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	2	7	W

Hammarby TFF

DWWDLDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
12/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-3	5	2	L
31/08	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
23/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
14/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	6	0	L
09/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
03/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	5-1	3	5	W
26/06	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	7-0	8	1	W
18/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Arlanda vs Hammarby TFF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hammarby TFF win (52%). Probabilities: FC Arlanda 23%, draw 25%, Hammarby TFF 52%.

How many goals are expected in FC Arlanda vs Hammarby TFF?

The model expects 2.9 goals (FC Arlanda 1.12 · Hammarby TFF 1.78), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Arlanda vs Hammarby TFF?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.