Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 20/09, 14:30

Prediction: Piteå IF vs FC Järfälla

Team pages: Piteå IF · FC Järfälla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Piteå IF1.54

FC Järfälla1.26

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Piteå IF Draw FC Järfälla

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Piteå IF 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDDDLWLL

FC Järfälla 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Piteå IF 0–1 FC Järfälla (1 last)

FC Järfälla1-0Piteå IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Piteå IF 1433 · FC Järfälla 1433

	Piteå IF	Draw	FC Järfälla
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	44%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Piteå IF	FC Järfälla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	1.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.08
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.87 ★
2	2.80 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:26 +11’	2.10	3.60	2.80
19:50 +34’	2.05▼	3.70▲	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +42’	2.05	3.91	2.86
16:03 +261’	2.08▲	3.87▼	2.83▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Piteå IF 0–0–1 FC Järfälla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Järfälla	1-0 HT 1-0	Piteå IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	22	15	3	4	53	19	48
2	AFC Eskilstuna	22	13	4	5	41	29	43
3	Hammarby TFF	22	12	6	4	46	18	42
4	FC Arlanda	22	11	6	5	36	25	39
5	IF Karlstad Fotboll	22	11	5	6	33	21	38
6	FBK Karlstad	22	11	5	6	36	32	38
7	Enkopings SK	22	12	2	8	35	36	38
8	Assyriska Föreningen	22	8	5	9	37	39	29
9	Karlbergs BK	22	8	4	10	29	36	28
10	Gefle IF	22	8	3	11	28	41	27
11	Umeå FC	22	7	5	10	28	37	26
12	Vasalunds IF	22	6	6	10	33	43	24
13	Sollentuna United FF	22	5	8	9	21	31	23
14	FC Järfälla	22	5	3	14	29	47	18
15	Piteå IF	22	3	6	13	24	43	15
16	IFK Stocksund	22	3	5	14	43	55	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Piteå IF	FC Järfälla
Umeå FC	0-2 L	3-1 W
Karlbergs BK	3-0 W	5-0 W
FBK Karlstad	3-4 L	0-3 L
Hammarby TFF	1-1 D	1-1 D
Gefle IF	0-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Järfälla (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Piteå IF

DLLDDDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
13/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
06/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
30/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	3-4	8	0	L
23/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
16/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
01/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
24/06	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
21/06	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-2	2	2	D

FC Järfälla

DWLLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
12/09	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
05/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-3	6	0	L
29/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
21/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
15/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
08/08	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-4	6	2	L
01/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	2	1	L
28/06	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
18/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	2	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Piteå IF vs FC Järfälla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Piteå IF win (43%). Probabilities: Piteå IF 43%, draw 26%, FC Järfälla 31%.

How many goals are expected in Piteå IF vs FC Järfälla?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Piteå IF 1.54 · FC Järfälla 1.26), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Piteå IF vs FC Järfälla?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.