Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 17/09, 19:00

Prediction: Vasalunds IF vs Hammarby TFF

Team pages: Vasalunds IF · Hammarby TFF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Vasalunds IF1.26

Hammarby TFF1.91

1X2

24% 24% 52%

Vasalunds IF Draw Hammarby TFF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Vasalunds IF 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDWDWLLL

Hammarby TFF 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLDDLW

Head-to-head

Vasalunds IF 1–3–2 Hammarby TFF (6 last)

Hammarby TFF2-2Vasalunds IF
Vasalunds IF1-1Hammarby TFF
Hammarby TFF3-2Vasalunds IF
Vasalunds IF3-0Hammarby TFF
Hammarby TFF1-1Vasalunds IF
Vasalunds IF0-1Hammarby TFF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasalunds IF 1455 · Hammarby TFF 1528

	Vasalunds IF	Draw	Hammarby TFF
Our model	24%	24%	52%
Market	24%	24%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby TFF (rating 1455 vs 1528).
H2H favours Hammarby TFF: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasalunds IF	Hammarby TFF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.1	1.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.80

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:27 +11’	3.70	3.80	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasalunds IF 1–3–2 Hammarby TFF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	2-2 HT 0-1	Vasalunds IF
04/08/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	1-1 HT 1-1	Hammarby TFF
01/06/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	3-2 HT 3-0	Vasalunds IF
09/09/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	3-0 HT 1-0	Hammarby TFF
15/06/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	1-1 HT 1-1	Vasalunds IF
05/08/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	0-1 HT 0-0	Hammarby TFF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	21	14	3	4	48	17	45
2	Hammarby TFF	21	12	5	4	46	18	41
3	AFC Eskilstuna	21	12	4	5	36	27	40
4	IF Karlstad Fotboll	21	11	4	6	33	21	37
5	FBK Karlstad	21	11	4	6	36	32	37
6	FC Arlanda	21	10	6	5	34	25	36
7	Enkopings SK	21	11	2	8	32	34	35
8	Assyriska Föreningen	21	8	5	8	35	34	29
9	Karlbergs BK	21	8	4	9	29	31	28
10	Gefle IF	21	8	3	10	28	39	27
11	Sollentuna United FF	21	5	8	8	19	28	23
12	Vasalunds IF	21	6	5	10	33	43	23
13	Umeå FC	21	6	5	10	26	37	23
14	Piteå IF	21	3	6	12	24	41	15
15	FC Järfälla	21	4	3	14	24	47	15
16	IFK Stocksund	21	3	5	13	41	50	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasalunds IF	Hammarby TFF
FBK Karlstad	1-2 L	1-1 D
Piteå IF	1-1 D	1-1 D
FC Stockholm Internazionale	2-0 W	0-3 L
Sollentuna United FF	1-1 D	1-0 W
Karlbergs BK	0-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby TFF (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vasalunds IF

DLLDWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	1	1	L
06/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-3	3	0	L
30/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	2-3	10	4	L
23/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	4-3	6	2	W
16/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
09/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
03/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
26/06	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
18/06	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-3	0-4	8	5	L
14/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	2	4	D

Hammarby TFF

WDWWDLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
05/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-3	5	2	L
31/08	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
23/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	7	1	D
14/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	6	0	L
09/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
03/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	5-1	3	5	W
26/06	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	7-0	8	1	W
18/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
14/06	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasalunds IF vs Hammarby TFF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hammarby TFF win (52%). Probabilities: Vasalunds IF 24%, draw 24%, Hammarby TFF 52%.

How many goals are expected in Vasalunds IF vs Hammarby TFF?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Vasalunds IF 1.26 · Hammarby TFF 1.91), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasalunds IF vs Hammarby TFF?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.