Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 01/11, 16:00

Prediction: Vasalunds IF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll

Team pages: Vasalunds IF · IF Karlstad Fotboll

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Vasalunds IF1.92

IF Karlstad Fotboll1.51

1X2

46% 24% 29%

Vasalunds IF Draw IF Karlstad Fotboll

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Vasalunds IF 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWLDLL

IF Karlstad Fotboll 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDDDDWLL

Head-to-head

Vasalunds IF 2–4 IF Karlstad Fotboll (6 last)

IF Karlstad Fotboll5-0Vasalunds IF
IF Karlstad Fotboll2-3Vasalunds IF
Vasalunds IF1-3IF Karlstad Fotboll
IF Karlstad Fotboll2-0Vasalunds IF
Vasalunds IF0-1IF Karlstad Fotboll
IF Karlstad Fotboll1-2Vasalunds IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasalunds IF 1410 · IF Karlstad Fotboll 1468

	Vasalunds IF	Draw	IF Karlstad Fotboll
Our model	47%	24%	29%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IF Karlstad Fotboll (rating 1410 vs 1468).
H2H favours IF Karlstad Fotboll: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasalunds IF	IF Karlstad Fotboll
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.6	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.2	3.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	2.38 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:13 +10’	2.45	3.50	2.38
12:43 +18’	1.95▼	3.60▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasalunds IF 2–0–4 IF Karlstad Fotboll

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	5-0 HT 2-0	Vasalunds IF
24/08/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-3 HT 2-2	Vasalunds IF
08/06/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	1-3 HT 0-1	IF Karlstad Fotboll
11/08/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	2-0 HT 1-0	Vasalunds IF
27/04/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Vasalunds IF	0-1 HT 0-1	IF Karlstad Fotboll
19/08/23 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	1-2 HT 1-1	Vasalunds IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	28	20	4	4	68	23	64
2	AFC Eskilstuna	28	16	5	7	54	37	53
3	FC Arlanda	28	15	6	7	50	35	51
4	Enkopings SK	28	16	3	9	45	42	51
5	Hammarby TFF	28	14	7	7	55	29	49
6	FBK Karlstad	28	13	7	8	44	38	46
7	IF Karlstad Fotboll	28	12	8	8	42	31	44
8	Umeå FC	28	11	6	11	40	44	39
9	Assyriska Föreningen	28	10	5	13	46	51	35
10	Gefle IF	28	10	5	13	34	47	35
11	Karlbergs BK	28	9	7	12	38	48	34
12	Sollentuna United FF	28	7	10	11	30	37	31
13	Vasalunds IF	28	7	7	14	39	61	28
14	Piteå IF	28	5	9	14	35	53	24
15	FC Järfälla	28	6	5	17	39	60	23
16	IFK Stocksund	28	3	6	19	46	69	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasalunds IF	IF Karlstad Fotboll
AFC Eskilstuna	0-4 L	1-2 L
Karlbergs BK	3-3 D	1-1 D
FC Arlanda	1-4 L	3-0 W
Gefle IF	1-0 W	2-2 D
Hammarby TFF	0-0 D	1-2 L
FBK Karlstad	1-2 L	0-0 D
Enkopings SK	2-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IF Karlstad Fotboll (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vasalunds IF

LLLDLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
18/10	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-4	5	2	L
10/10	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
04/10	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-4	2	4	L
27/09	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
21/09	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-5	2	4	L
17/09	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	1	1	L
06/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-3	3	0	L
30/08	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	2-3	10	4	L

IF Karlstad Fotboll

DLLDDDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-4	7	1	L
18/10	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
10/10	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
03/10	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
27/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
19/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
16/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
12/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	10	7	L
05/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
29/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasalunds IF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vasalunds IF win (46%). Probabilities: Vasalunds IF 46%, draw 24%, IF Karlstad Fotboll 29%.

How many goals are expected in Vasalunds IF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Vasalunds IF 1.92 · IF Karlstad Fotboll 1.51), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasalunds IF vs IF Karlstad Fotboll?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.