Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 08/11, 15:00

Prediction: Gefle IF vs Karlbergs BK

Team pages: Gefle IF · Karlbergs BK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Gefle IF1.71

Karlbergs BK1.27

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Gefle IF Draw Karlbergs BK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Gefle IF 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLDDWW

Karlbergs BK 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWDLDW

Head-to-head

Gefle IF 1–1–1 Karlbergs BK (3 last)

Karlbergs BK3-2Gefle IF
Gefle IF1-1Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK0-1Gefle IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gefle IF 1503 · Karlbergs BK 1486

	Gefle IF	Draw	Karlbergs BK
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	49%	22%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gefle IF	Karlbergs BK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	2.2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X4.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:23 +10’	1.85	4.00	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gefle IF 1–1–1 Karlbergs BK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	3-2 HT 3-0	Gefle IF
02/08/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Gefle IF	1-1 HT 1-1	Karlbergs BK
17/05/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	0-1 HT 0-1	Gefle IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	29	20	4	5	69	25	64
2	FC Arlanda	29	16	6	7	53	36	54
3	AFC Eskilstuna	29	16	5	8	55	40	53
4	Enkopings SK	29	16	4	9	46	43	52
5	Hammarby TFF	29	14	7	8	55	31	49
6	FBK Karlstad	29	14	7	8	46	39	49
7	IF Karlstad Fotboll	29	12	8	9	43	33	44
8	Umeå FC	29	12	6	11	43	44	42
9	Gefle IF	29	11	5	13	36	47	38
10	Karlbergs BK	29	10	7	12	40	48	37
11	Assyriska Föreningen	29	10	5	14	46	53	35
12	Sollentuna United FF	29	7	10	12	30	40	31
13	Vasalunds IF	29	8	7	14	41	62	31
14	Piteå IF	29	6	9	14	39	56	27
15	FC Järfälla	29	6	6	17	40	61	24
16	IFK Stocksund	29	3	6	20	49	73	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gefle IF	Karlbergs BK
FBK Karlstad	1-0 W	1-3 L
FC Stockholm Internazionale	1-1 D	0-2 L
Piteå IF	3-3 D	0-3 L
Vasalunds IF	0-1 L	3-3 D
FC Arlanda	0-2 L	1-0 W
FC Järfälla	3-1 W	0-5 L
Sollentuna United FF	0-1 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Gefle IF (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gefle IF

LWLWLLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
24/10	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
17/10	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
11/10	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	3-3	2	4	D
03/10	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
27/09	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
20/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
16/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
12/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
05/09	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-1	2	5	L

Karlbergs BK

LWLLDWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
25/10	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
17/10	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-3	5	2	L
10/10	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
02/10	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-2	3-2	4	7	W
27/09	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
20/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	6	0	L
17/09	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-5	5	3	L
12/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
06/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gefle IF vs Karlbergs BK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gefle IF win (48%). Probabilities: Gefle IF 48%, draw 24%, Karlbergs BK 28%.

How many goals are expected in Gefle IF vs Karlbergs BK?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Gefle IF 1.71 · Karlbergs BK 1.27), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Karlbergs BK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.