Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 08/11, 15:00
Prediction: IF Karlstad Fotboll vs Umeå FC
Team pages: IF Karlstad Fotboll · Umeå FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.01Total
IF Karlstad Fotboll1.85
Umeå FC1.16
1X2
IF Karlstad Fotboll
Draw
Umeå FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 65%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
IF Karlstad Fotboll
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Umeå FC
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
IF Karlstad Fotboll
2–1–3
Umeå FC
(6 last)
- Umeå FC0-2IF Karlstad Fotboll
- IF Karlstad Fotboll2-1Umeå FC
- IF Karlstad Fotboll3-4Umeå FC
- Umeå FC5-2IF Karlstad Fotboll
- IF Karlstad Fotboll2-2Umeå FC
- Umeå FC3-0IF Karlstad Fotboll
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · IF Karlstad Fotboll 1469 · Umeå FC 1546
| IF Karlstad Fotboll | Draw | Umeå FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 25% | 23% |
| Market | 54% | 22% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Umeå FC (rating 1469 vs 1546).
- H2H favours Umeå FC: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| IF Karlstad Fotboll | Umeå FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.1 | 2.8 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 2.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · IF Karlstad Fotboll 2–1–3 Umeå FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra | Umeå FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | IF Karlstad Fotboll |
| 19/08/25 Sweden Cup Qualification | IF Karlstad Fotboll | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Umeå FC |
| 26/10/24 Sweden 1.div Norra | IF Karlstad Fotboll | 3-4 HT 2-1 | Umeå FC |
| 14/04/24 Sweden 1.div Norra | Umeå FC | 5-2 HT 2-1 | IF Karlstad Fotboll |
| 16/09/23 Sweden 1.div Norra | IF Karlstad Fotboll | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Umeå FC |
| 21/05/23 Sweden 1.div Norra | Umeå FC | 3-0 HT 2-0 | IF Karlstad Fotboll |
Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Stockholm Internazionale | 29 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 25 | 64 |
| 2 | FC Arlanda | 29 | 16 | 6 | 7 | 53 | 36 | 54 |
| 3 | AFC Eskilstuna | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 55 | 40 | 53 |
| 4 | Enkopings SK | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 52 |
| 5 | Hammarby TFF | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 55 | 31 | 49 |
| 6 | FBK Karlstad | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 46 | 39 | 49 |
| 7 | IF Karlstad Fotboll | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 33 | 44 |
| 8 | Umeå FC | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 43 | 44 | 42 |
| 9 | Gefle IF | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 36 | 47 | 38 |
| 10 | Karlbergs BK | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 40 | 48 | 37 |
| 11 | Assyriska Föreningen | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 46 | 53 | 35 |
| 12 | Sollentuna United FF | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 40 | 31 |
| 13 | Vasalunds IF | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 62 | 31 |
| 14 | Piteå IF | 29 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 56 | 27 |
| 15 | FC Järfälla | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 40 | 61 | 24 |
| 16 | IFK Stocksund | 29 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 49 | 73 | 15 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | IF Karlstad Fotboll | Umeå FC |
|---|---|---|
| FC Stockholm Internazionale | 1-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Hammarby TFF | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| FC Arlanda | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Piteå IF | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Karlbergs BK | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| FBK Karlstad | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| IFK Stocksund | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
IF Karlstad Fotboll
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 24/10 | FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 18/10 | Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 03/10 | Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 27/09 | Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 16/09 | FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Umeå FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/10 | Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 18/10 | Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 04/10 | Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 27/09 | FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 20/09 | IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 16/09 | Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in IF Karlstad Fotboll vs Umeå FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a IF Karlstad Fotboll win (53%). Probabilities: IF Karlstad Fotboll 53%, draw 23%, Umeå FC 23%.
How many goals are expected in IF Karlstad Fotboll vs Umeå FC?
The model expects 3.01 goals (IF Karlstad Fotboll 1.85 · Umeå FC 1.16), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in IF Karlstad Fotboll vs Umeå FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.