Football · Brazil Serie A · 08/10, 01:30

Prediction: Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama

Team pages: Botafogo · Vasco da Gama

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Botafogo1.18

Vasco da Gama1.31

1X2

33% 28% 39%

Botafogo Draw Vasco da Gama

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Botafogo 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLLLDDWL

Vasco da Gama 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Botafogo 3–2–1 Vasco da Gama (6 last)

Vasco da Gama1-2Botafogo
Vasco da Gama2-0Botafogo
Botafogo3-0Vasco da Gama
Botafogo1-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama1-1Botafogo
Vasco da Gama0-2Botafogo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Botafogo 1488 · Vasco da Gama 1537

	Botafogo	Draw	Vasco da Gama
Our model	32%	30%	38%
Market	33%	27%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vasco da Gama (rating 1488 vs 1537).
H2H favours Botafogo: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botafogo	Vasco da Gama
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.4	2.9 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.40

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.42
2	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.56 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +1’	2.80	3.40	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:59 +276’	2.74	3.42	2.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botafogo 3–2–1 Vasco da Gama

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	1-2 HT 0-0	Botafogo
08/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca	Vasco da Gama	2-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo
05/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	3-0 HT 1-0	Vasco da Gama
12/09/25 Copa do Brasil	Botafogo	1-1 HT 1-1	Vasco da Gama
28/08/25 Copa do Brasil	Vasco da Gama	1-1 HT 1-1	Botafogo
12/07/25 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	0-2 HT 0-0	Botafogo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	57
3	Athletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	48
5	EC Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
7	Atletico Mineiro	27	11	7	9	36	32	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	38
10	Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	32
16	Vasco da Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	23
20	Chapecoense	27	3	9	15	29	53	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botafogo	Vasco da Gama
Mirassol	0-2 L	1-1 D
Gremio	3-2 W	2-1 W
Palmeiras	0-0 D	1-4 L
Vitoria	0-1 L	0-1 L
Fluminense	1-1 D	0-1 L
Cruzeiro	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botafogo

DWDLLLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
17/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
13/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
30/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
25/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-3	13	3	L
16/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
09/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
26/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
24/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	9	2	D

Vasco da Gama

LLDDLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	5-0	12	3	W
12/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
06/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
30/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	11	3	W
23/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-4	3	4	L
16/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
09/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
26/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
17/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
31/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vasco da Gama win (39%). Probabilities: Botafogo 33%, draw 28%, Vasco da Gama 39%.

How many goals are expected in Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Botafogo 1.18 · Vasco da Gama 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.