Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 2 · 24/07, 12:30

Prediction: Essendon Royals vs Kingston City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.3Total

Essendon Royals2.97

Kingston City1.33

1X2

70% 16% 14%

Essendon Royals Draw Kingston City

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Essendon Royals 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Kingston City 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Essendon Royals 1–0 Kingston City (1 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Essendon Royals 1579 · Kingston City 1422

	Essendon Royals	Draw	Kingston City
Our model	70%	16%	14%
Market	70%	16%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 4.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Essendon Royals (rating 1579 vs 1422).
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Essendon Royals	Kingston City
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.2	1 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.1	1.8 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.3	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.8

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +16’	1.28	5.50	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Essendon Royals 1–0–0 Kingston City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Kingston City	0-3 HT 0-1	Essendon Royals

Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Malvern City	20	14	1	5	47	23	43
2	Goulburn Valley Suns FC	20	13	4	3	45	27	43
3	Essendon Royals	21	12	2	7	50	31	38
4	Bayside Argonauts FC	20	10	5	5	39	29	35
5	Box Hill United	20	9	5	6	32	25	32
6	Keilor Park	19	10	1	8	27	27	31
7	Whittlesea United	21	7	8	6	32	23	29
8	Springvale White Eagles	21	7	5	9	25	37	26
9	Nunawading	20	7	4	9	20	30	25
10	Eastern Lions	20	6	6	8	31	27	24
11	Werribee City	21	5	5	11	27	37	20
12	Kingston City	20	6	2	12	21	43	20
13	Altona City	21	3	7	11	18	31	16
14	Moreland City SC	18	2	5	11	20	44	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Essendon Royals	Kingston City
Whittlesea United	1-1 D	1-1 D
Box Hill United	3-2 W	1-3 L
Bayside Argonauts FC	1-1 D	0-5 L
Werribee City	3-2 W	0-2 L
Malvern City	4-2 W	0-5 L
Goulburn Valley Suns FC	0-1 L	2-3 L
Nunawading	5-1 W	4-0 W
Moreland City SC	3-1 W	2-1 W
Keilor Park	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Essendon Royals (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Essendon Royals

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Whittlesea United Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
10/07	Box Hill United Australia Victoria Premier League 2	2-1	3-2	2	1	W
04/07	Bayside Argonauts FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
19/06	Werribee City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-1	3-2	5	4	W
13/06	Malvern City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
05/06	Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-0	8-0	6	3	W
30/05	Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
22/05	Nunawading Australia Victoria Premier League 2	3-0	5-1	4	6	W
15/05	Moreland City SC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	3-1	6	1	W
08/05	Keilor Park Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	9	1	L

Kingston City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
10/07	Whittlesea United Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
03/07	Nunawading Australia Victoria Premier League 2	2-0	4-0	6	6	W
19/06	Box Hill United Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
12/06	Moreland City SC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
06/06	Bayside Argonauts FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-4	0-5	–	–	L
29/05	Keilor Park Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
22/05	Werribee City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
15/05	Eastern Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	0-4	6	0	L
09/05	Malvern City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	0-5	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Essendon Royals vs Kingston City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Essendon Royals win (70%). Probabilities: Essendon Royals 70%, draw 16%, Kingston City 14%.

How many goals are expected in Essendon Royals vs Kingston City?

The model expects 4.3 goals (Essendon Royals 2.97 · Kingston City 1.33), with a 55% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Essendon Royals vs Kingston City?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.