Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 2 · 31/07, 12:30

Prediction: Essendon Royals vs Altona City

Team pages: Essendon Royals · Altona City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Essendon Royals2.08

Altona City1.02

1X2

61% 21% 17%

Essendon Royals Draw Altona City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Essendon Royals 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWDWDW

Altona City 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Essendon Royals 5–1 Altona City (6 last)

Altona City0-2Essendon Royals
Altona City2-5Essendon Royals
Essendon Royals2-1Altona City
Altona City0-4Essendon Royals
Essendon Royals0-1Altona City
Essendon Royals1-0Altona City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Essendon Royals 1578 · Altona City 1438

	Essendon Royals	Draw	Altona City
Our model	61%	22%	17%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Essendon Royals (rating 1578 vs 1438).
H2H favours Essendon Royals: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Essendon Royals	Altona City
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.3	0.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.3	1.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:55 +12’	1.45	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Essendon Royals 5–0–1 Altona City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Altona City	0-2 HT 0-0	Essendon Royals
16/05/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Altona City	2-5 HT 2-1	Essendon Royals
08/02/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Essendon Royals	2-1 HT 2-0	Altona City
27/07/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Altona City	0-4 HT 1-0	Essendon Royals
10/05/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Essendon Royals	0-1 HT 0-1	Altona City
08/07/22 Australia Victoria State League 1	Essendon Royals	1-0 HT 1-0	Altona City

Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Malvern City	21	15	1	5	51	24	46
2	Goulburn Valley Suns FC	21	14	4	3	47	28	46
3	Essendon Royals	22	13	2	7	54	33	41
4	Bayside Argonauts FC	21	11	5	5	40	29	38
5	Box Hill United	21	9	6	6	33	26	33
6	Keilor Park	20	10	1	9	27	28	31
7	Whittlesea United	22	7	9	6	32	23	30
8	Springvale White Eagles	22	7	5	10	26	39	26
9	Eastern Lions	21	6	7	8	32	28	25
10	Nunawading	21	7	4	10	21	34	25
11	Werribee City	22	5	6	11	31	41	21
12	Kingston City	21	6	2	13	23	47	20
13	Altona City	22	3	8	11	18	31	17
14	Moreland City SC	19	2	6	11	24	48	12

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Essendon Royals	Altona City
Whittlesea United	1-1 D	0-0 D
Box Hill United	3-2 W	1-3 L
Bayside Argonauts FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Werribee City	3-2 W	0-0 D
Malvern City	4-2 W	0-2 L
Springvale White Eagles	8-0 W	2-2 D
Goulburn Valley Suns FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Nunawading	5-1 W	0-0 D
Moreland City SC	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 5 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Essendon Royals (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Essendon Royals

WWLWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Kingston City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	4-1	4-2	3	4	W
17/07	Whittlesea United Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
10/07	Box Hill United Australia Victoria Premier League 2	2-1	3-2	2	1	W
04/07	Bayside Argonauts FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
19/06	Werribee City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-1	3-2	5	4	W
13/06	Malvern City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
05/06	Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-0	8-0	6	3	W
30/05	Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
22/05	Nunawading Australia Victoria Premier League 2	3-0	5-1	4	6	W
15/05	Moreland City SC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	3-1	6	1	W

Altona City

LLDDDLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Whittlesea United Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
17/07	Box Hill United Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	1-3	3	1	L
11/07	Bayside Argonauts FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
04/07	Werribee City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
20/06	Malvern City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
12/06	Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
06/06	Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
29/05	Nunawading Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
23/05	Moreland City SC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
16/05	Keilor Park Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Essendon Royals vs Altona City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Essendon Royals win (61%). Probabilities: Essendon Royals 61%, draw 21%, Altona City 17%.

How many goals are expected in Essendon Royals vs Altona City?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Essendon Royals 2.08 · Altona City 1.02), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Essendon Royals vs Altona City?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.