Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 2 · 31/07, 11:30
Prediction: Box Hill United vs Keilor Park
Team pages: Box Hill United · Keilor Park
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
Box Hill United1.56
Keilor Park1.23
1X2
Box Hill United
Draw
Keilor Park
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Box Hill United
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Keilor Park
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Box Hill United
0–1–0
Keilor Park
(1 last)
- Keilor Park1-1Box Hill United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Box Hill United 1493 · Keilor Park 1513
| Box Hill United | Draw | Keilor Park | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Box Hill United | Keilor Park | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.9 | 2.5 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Box Hill United 0–1–0 Keilor Park
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Keilor Park | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Box Hill United |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malvern City | 21 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 24 | 46 |
| 2 | Goulburn Valley Suns FC | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 47 | 28 | 46 |
| 3 | Essendon Royals | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 54 | 33 | 41 |
| 4 | Bayside Argonauts FC | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 29 | 38 |
| 5 | Box Hill United | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 26 | 33 |
| 6 | Keilor Park | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 28 | 31 |
| 7 | Whittlesea United | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 32 | 23 | 30 |
| 8 | Springvale White Eagles | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 39 | 26 |
| 9 | Eastern Lions | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 25 |
| 10 | Nunawading | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 34 | 25 |
| 11 | Werribee City | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 31 | 41 | 21 |
| 12 | Kingston City | 21 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 23 | 47 | 20 |
| 13 | Altona City | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 31 | 17 |
| 14 | Moreland City SC | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 24 | 48 | 12 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Box Hill United | Keilor Park |
|---|---|---|
| Eastern Lions | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Altona City | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Essendon Royals | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Whittlesea United | 1-3 L | 0-4 L |
| Kingston City | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Werribee City | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Malvern City | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Springvale White Eagles | 2-1 W | 2-5 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 6 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Box Hill United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Eastern Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/07 | Altona City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 10/07 | Essendon Royals Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 03/07 | Whittlesea United Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Kingston City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 05/06 | Werribee City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 29/05 | Malvern City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 9 | D |
Keilor Park
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Bayside Argonauts FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | Werribee City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Malvern City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/07 | Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-3 | 2-5 | – | – | L |
| 12/06 | Nunawading Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 29/05 | Kingston City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Eastern Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Altona City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/05 | Essendon Royals Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 01/05 | Whittlesea United Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Box Hill United vs Keilor Park?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Box Hill United win (44%). Probabilities: Box Hill United 44%, draw 26%, Keilor Park 29%.
How many goals are expected in Box Hill United vs Keilor Park?
The model expects 2.79 goals (Box Hill United 1.56 · Keilor Park 1.23), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Box Hill United vs Keilor Park?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.