Prediction: Essendon Royals vs Box Hill United
Expected goals: 3.37 (Essendon Royals 1.95 · Box Hill United 1.42). The model gives 49% home, 23% draw, 27% away. Under 3.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Essendon Royals is 6-1-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Box Hill United 4-2-4 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Essendon Royals and 2 for Box Hill United, with 1 draw.
| Essendon Royals | Draw | Box Hill United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Market | 50% | 23% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Essendon Royals (rating 1552 vs 1482).
- H2H favours Essendon Royals: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Essendon Royals | Box Hill United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.4 | 2.9 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Essendon Royals 3–1–2 Box Hill United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Box Hill United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Essendon Royals |
| 18/07/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Box Hill United | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Essendon Royals |
| 05/04/25 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Essendon Royals | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Box Hill United |
| 14/06/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Essendon Royals | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Box Hill United |
| 22/03/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Box Hill United | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Essendon Royals |
| 11/08/23 Australia Victoria Premier League 3 | Essendon Royals | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Box Hill United |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malvern City | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 22 | 40 |
| 2 | Goulburn Valley Suns FC | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 41 | 25 | 37 |
| 3 | Essendon Royals | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 46 | 28 | 34 |
| 4 | Bayside Argonauts FC | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 28 | 31 |
| 5 | Box Hill United | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 21 | 29 |
| 6 | Whittlesea United | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 21 | 27 |
| 7 | Keilor Park | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 25 |
| 8 | Springvale White Eagles | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 35 | 23 |
| 9 | Nunawading | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 29 | 22 |
| 10 | Eastern Lions | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 25 | 20 |
| 11 | Werribee City | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 32 | 20 |
| 12 | Kingston City | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 39 | 19 |
| 13 | Altona City | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 27 | 16 |
| 14 | Moreland City SC | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 38 | 11 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Essendon Royals | Box Hill United |
|---|---|---|
| Werribee City | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| Malvern City | 4-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Springvale White Eagles | 8-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Goulburn Valley Suns FC | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Nunawading | 5-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Moreland City SC | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Keilor Park | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Essendon Royals (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Essendon Royals
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Bayside Argonauts FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 19/06 | Werribee City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Malvern City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 05/06 | Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 8-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 22/05 | Nunawading Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
3-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | Moreland City SC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | Keilor Park Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 01/05 | Eastern Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 28/04 | Eltham Redbacks Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-3 | 0-4 | 7 | 1 | L |
Box Hill United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Whittlesea United Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Kingston City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 05/06 | Werribee City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 29/05 | Malvern City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 9 | D |
| 09/05 | Nunawading Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Moreland City SC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 24/04 | Keilor Park Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Essendon Royals vs Box Hill United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Essendon Royals win (49%). Probabilities: Essendon Royals 49%, draw 23%, Box Hill United 27%.
How many goals are expected in Essendon Royals vs Box Hill United?
The model expects 3.37 goals (Essendon Royals 1.95 · Box Hill United 1.42), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Essendon Royals vs Box Hill United?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.