Prediction: Keilor Park vs Malvern City
Expected goals: 2.97 (Keilor Park 1.26 · Malvern City 1.71). The model gives 28% home, 24% draw, 48% away. Under 3.25 goals (56%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Keilor Park is 4-2-4 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Malvern City 6-1-3 over its own. In their only recent head-to-head meeting the record reads 0 wins for Keilor Park and 1 for Malvern City.
| Keilor Park | Draw | Malvern City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Market | 29% | 23% | 48% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malvern City (rating 1483 vs 1547).
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Keilor Park | Malvern City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.5 | 2.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.3 | 3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Keilor Park 0–0–1 Malvern City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Malvern City | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Keilor Park |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malvern City | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 22 | 40 |
| 2 | Goulburn Valley Suns FC | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 41 | 25 | 37 |
| 3 | Essendon Royals | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 46 | 28 | 34 |
| 4 | Bayside Argonauts FC | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 28 | 31 |
| 5 | Box Hill United | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 21 | 29 |
| 6 | Whittlesea United | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 21 | 27 |
| 7 | Keilor Park | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 25 |
| 8 | Springvale White Eagles | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 35 | 23 |
| 9 | Nunawading | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 29 | 22 |
| 10 | Eastern Lions | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 25 | 20 |
| 11 | Werribee City | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 32 | 20 |
| 12 | Kingston City | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 39 | 19 |
| 13 | Altona City | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 27 | 16 |
| 14 | Moreland City SC | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 38 | 11 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Keilor Park | Malvern City |
|---|---|---|
| Springvale White Eagles | 2-5 L | 4-1 W |
| Nunawading | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Kingston City | 2-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Altona City | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Essendon Royals | 1-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Whittlesea United | 0-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Box Hill United | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Bayside Argonauts FC | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 5 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Malvern City (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Keilor Park
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-3 | 2-5 | – | – | L |
| 12/06 | Nunawading Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 29/05 | Kingston City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Eastern Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Altona City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/05 | Essendon Royals Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 01/05 | Whittlesea United Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 27/04 | Preston Lions Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 24/04 | Box Hill United Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Bayside Argonauts FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Malvern City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Altona City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Essendon Royals Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-3 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 05/06 | Whittlesea United Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | Box Hill United Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Bayside Argonauts FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Kingston City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Nunawading Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Moreland City SC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Keilor Park vs Malvern City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Malvern City win (48%). Probabilities: Keilor Park 28%, draw 24%, Malvern City 48%.
How many goals are expected in Keilor Park vs Malvern City?
The model expects 2.97 goals (Keilor Park 1.26 · Malvern City 1.71), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Keilor Park vs Malvern City?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.