Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 2 · 24/07, 11:45

Prediction: Eastern Lions vs Box Hill United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Eastern Lions1.36

Box Hill United1.45

1X2

36% 25% 40%

Eastern Lions Draw Box Hill United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Eastern Lions 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Box Hill United 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Eastern Lions 3–2–1 Box Hill United (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Eastern Lions 1498 · Box Hill United 1482

	Eastern Lions	Draw	Box Hill United
Our model	34%	28%	38%
Market	37%	22%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Eastern Lions: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Eastern Lions	Box Hill United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.2	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X4.00

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +1’	2.45	4.00	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastern Lions 3–2–1 Box Hill United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Box Hill United	1-1 HT 0-1	Eastern Lions
13/07/19 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Box Hill United	1-3 HT 0-1	Eastern Lions
09/03/19 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Eastern Lions	2-1 HT 1-0	Box Hill United
12/08/18 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Box Hill United	0-3 HT 0-1	Eastern Lions
17/03/18 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Eastern Lions	0-2 HT 0-1	Box Hill United
03/06/17 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Eastern Lions	2-2 HT 0-1	Box Hill United

Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Malvern City	20	14	1	5	47	23	43
2	Goulburn Valley Suns FC	20	13	4	3	45	27	43
3	Essendon Royals	21	12	2	7	50	31	38
4	Bayside Argonauts FC	20	10	5	5	39	29	35
5	Box Hill United	20	9	5	6	32	25	32
6	Keilor Park	19	10	1	8	27	27	31
7	Whittlesea United	21	7	8	6	32	23	29
8	Springvale White Eagles	21	7	5	9	25	37	26
9	Nunawading	20	7	4	9	20	30	25
10	Eastern Lions	20	6	6	8	31	27	24
11	Werribee City	21	5	5	11	27	37	20
12	Kingston City	20	6	2	12	21	43	20
13	Altona City	21	3	7	11	18	31	16
14	Moreland City SC	18	2	5	11	20	44	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Eastern Lions	Box Hill United
Werribee City	2-1 W	0-2 L
Springvale White Eagles	0-0 D	2-1 W
Goulburn Valley Suns FC	1-2 L	1-2 L
Nunawading	2-0 W	0-1 L
Kingston City	4-0 W	3-1 W
Altona City	0-2 L	3-1 W
Essendon Royals	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Eastern Lions (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Eastern Lions

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Bayside Argonauts FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
10/07	Werribee City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
19/06	Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
13/06	Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
05/06	Nunawading Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
30/05	Moreland City SC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-2	3-3	–	–	D
22/05	Keilor Park Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
15/05	Kingston City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-0	4-0	6	0	W
08/05	Altona City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
01/05	Essendon Royals Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	1-2	1	2	L

Box Hill United

LDLWWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Altona City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-0	3-1	5	1	W
10/07	Essendon Royals Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-2	2-3	5	1	L
03/07	Whittlesea United Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	1-3	2	3	L
19/06	Kingston City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
05/06	Werribee City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-2	6	1	L
29/05	Malvern City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
22/05	Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
16/05	Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
12/05	Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying	0-0	0-0	8	9	D
09/05	Nunawading Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	0-1	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Eastern Lions vs Box Hill United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Box Hill United win (40%). Probabilities: Eastern Lions 36%, draw 25%, Box Hill United 40%.

How many goals are expected in Eastern Lions vs Box Hill United?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Eastern Lions 1.36 · Box Hill United 1.45), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Eastern Lions vs Box Hill United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.