Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 2 · 24/07, 11:30

Prediction: Nunawading vs Malvern City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Nunawading1.05

Malvern City1.96

1X2

19% 22% 58%

Nunawading Draw Malvern City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nunawading 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Malvern City 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nunawading 0–1 Malvern City (1 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nunawading 1466 · Malvern City 1528

	Nunawading	Draw	Malvern City
Our model	19%	24%	58%
Market	20%	21%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malvern City (rating 1466 vs 1528).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nunawading	Malvern City
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	2.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.9	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.20

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.95

2 (-1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:03 +7’	4.50	4.20	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nunawading 0–0–1 Malvern City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Malvern City	2-1 HT 1-0	Nunawading

Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Malvern City	20	14	1	5	47	23	43
2	Goulburn Valley Suns FC	20	13	4	3	45	27	43
3	Essendon Royals	21	12	2	7	50	31	38
4	Bayside Argonauts FC	20	10	5	5	39	29	35
5	Box Hill United	20	9	5	6	32	25	32
6	Keilor Park	19	10	1	8	27	27	31
7	Whittlesea United	21	7	8	6	32	23	29
8	Springvale White Eagles	21	7	5	9	25	37	26
9	Nunawading	20	7	4	9	20	30	25
10	Eastern Lions	20	6	6	8	31	27	24
11	Werribee City	21	5	5	11	27	37	20
12	Kingston City	20	6	2	12	21	43	20
13	Altona City	21	3	7	11	18	31	16
14	Moreland City SC	18	2	5	11	20	44	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nunawading	Malvern City
Springvale White Eagles	2-0 W	4-1 W
Goulburn Valley Suns FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Kingston City	0-4 L	5-0 W
Keilor Park	2-0 W	0-1 L
Altona City	0-0 D	2-0 W
Essendon Royals	1-5 L	2-4 L
Box Hill United	1-0 W	1-2 L
Bayside Argonauts FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Malvern City (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nunawading

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
11/07	Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
03/07	Kingston City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-2	0-4	6	6	L
12/06	Keilor Park Australia Victoria Premier League 2	2-0	2-0	2	8	W
05/06	Eastern Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
29/05	Altona City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
22/05	Essendon Royals Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-3	1-5	5	6	L
09/05	Box Hill United Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
02/05	Bayside Argonauts FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	Werribee City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-3	1-4	0	3	L

Malvern City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Moreland City SC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
11/07	Keilor Park Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
20/06	Altona City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
13/06	Essendon Royals Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-3	2-4	–	–	L
05/06	Whittlesea United Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
29/05	Box Hill United Australia Victoria Premier League 2	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
23/05	Bayside Argonauts FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
09/05	Kingston City Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-0	5-0	6	2	W
02/05	Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2	2-1	4-1	7	2	W
25/04	Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nunawading vs Malvern City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Malvern City win (58%). Probabilities: Nunawading 19%, draw 22%, Malvern City 58%.

How many goals are expected in Nunawading vs Malvern City?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Nunawading 1.05 · Malvern City 1.96), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Nunawading vs Malvern City?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.