Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 16/07, 17:00
Prediction: FC Bunyodkor vs Nasaf Qarshi
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.49Total
FC Bunyodkor1.19
Nasaf Qarshi1.31
1X2
FC Bunyodkor
Draw
Nasaf Qarshi
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FC Bunyodkor
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Nasaf Qarshi
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Bunyodkor
1–5–0
Nasaf Qarshi
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Bunyodkor 1538 · Nasaf Qarshi 1510
| FC Bunyodkor | Draw | Nasaf Qarshi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 32% | 30% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Bunyodkor | Nasaf Qarshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 1.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.3 | 1.4 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.4 | 2.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Bunyodkor 1–5–0 Nasaf Qarshi
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL | FC Bunyodkor | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Nasaf Qarshi |
| 10/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Nasaf Qarshi | 2-2 HT 1-0 | FC Bunyodkor |
| 28/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL | FC Bunyodkor | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Nasaf Qarshi |
| 13/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Nasaf Qarshi | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Bunyodkor |
| 24/09/23 Uzbekistan PFL | Nasaf Qarshi | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FC Bunyodkor |
| 17/04/23 Uzbekistan PFL | FC Bunyodkor | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Nasaf Qarshi |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 28 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | FK Buxoro | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Navbahor Namangan | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 20 |
| 5 | FC Bunyodkor | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| 7 | AGMK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 8 | FK Andijan | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 11 | 16 |
| 9 | Nasaf Qarshi | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| 10 | Xorazm Urganch | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| 11 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 13 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 12 |
| 13 | Dinamo Samarqand | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 11 |
| 14 | FK Kokand 1912 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 11 |
| 15 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 9 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Bunyodkor | Nasaf Qarshi |
|---|---|---|
| FK Kokand 1912 | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Navbahor Namangan | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| FK Andijan | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Neftchi Fergana | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Lokomotiv Tashkent | 2-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Bunyodkor
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Jayxun Uzbekistan Cup |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/05 | PFC Terdu Uzbekistan Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 03/05 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/04 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 24/04 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 19/04 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 14/04 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 07/04 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 02/04 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 18/03 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
Nasaf Qarshi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05 | Shurtan Uzbekistan Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Havoqand Uzbekistan Cup |
5-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 04/05 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 28/04 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 2-3 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 13/04 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 08/04 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 03/04 | FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Bunyodkor vs Nasaf Qarshi?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Nasaf Qarshi win (38%). Probabilities: FC Bunyodkor 32%, draw 30%, Nasaf Qarshi 38%.
How many goals are expected in FC Bunyodkor vs Nasaf Qarshi?
The model expects 2.49 goals (FC Bunyodkor 1.19 · Nasaf Qarshi 1.31), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Bunyodkor vs Nasaf Qarshi?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.