Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 03/08, 17:00

Prediction: AGMK vs Nasaf Qarshi

Team pages: AGMK · Nasaf Qarshi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

AGMK1.57

Nasaf Qarshi1.26

1X2

43% 28% 29%

AGMK Draw Nasaf Qarshi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

AGMK 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDDWWWWW

Nasaf Qarshi 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LLDDWDWWDW

Head-to-head

AGMK 1–2–3 Nasaf Qarshi (6 last)

AGMK1-1Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi2-1AGMK
AGMK3-2Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi2-0AGMK
AGMK3-4Nasaf Qarshi
AGMK1-1Nasaf Qarshi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AGMK 1580 · Nasaf Qarshi 1536

	AGMK	Draw	Nasaf Qarshi
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AGMK (rating 1580 vs 1536).
H2H favours Nasaf Qarshi: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AGMK	Nasaf Qarshi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.5	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 7	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 1.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.29 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.29
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:50 +1’	2.10	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:21 +1’	2.26	3.22	2.91
11:19 +1’	2.29▲	3.29▲	2.96▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AGMK 1–2–3 Nasaf Qarshi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	1-1 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi
23/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	2-1 HT 1-0	AGMK
23/04/25 Uzbekistan Cup	AGMK	3-2 HT 0-2	Nasaf Qarshi
23/09/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	2-0 HT 2-0	AGMK
07/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	3-4 HT 1-2	Nasaf Qarshi
01/12/23 Uzbekistan PFL	AGMK	1-1 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	14	11	2	1	33	6	35
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	15	10	4	1	26	14	34
3	FK Buxoro	15	8	2	5	19	16	26
4	AGMK	14	7	4	3	23	18	25
5	Navbahor Namangan	14	6	4	4	18	13	22
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	15	6	4	5	22	21	22
7	Nasaf Qarshi	14	5	6	3	17	13	21
8	FK Andijan	15	6	3	6	22	16	21
9	Dinamo Samarqand	14	6	2	6	24	25	20
10	FC Bunyodkor	14	6	1	7	14	16	19
11	Xorazm Urganch	14	4	4	6	11	17	16
12	Termez Surkhon	14	4	3	7	14	22	15
13	Qizilqum Zarafshon	14	4	2	8	10	19	14
14	Sogdiana Jizzakh	14	3	3	8	23	33	12
15	FK Kokand 1912	14	2	5	7	13	23	11
16	Mashal Mubarek	14	1	1	12	7	24	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AGMK	Nasaf Qarshi
Mashal Mubarek	2-1 W	1-1 D
Navbahor Namangan	3-2 W	0-0 D
Neftchi Fergana	0-0 D	1-2 L
Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AGMK (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AGMK

WDWDDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	13	3	W
22/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	4-1	5	3	W
17/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-2	7	4	W
20/05	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
16/05	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan Cup	1-1	3-2	6	2	W
10/05	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan Cup	2-0	3-3	7	5	D
03/05	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
27/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
23/04	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-2	5	4	D
17/04	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-2	3-2	11	6	W

Nasaf Qarshi

LLDDWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
22/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	10	2	D
16/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	6	3	W
26/05	Shurtan Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
21/05	FK Andijan Uzbekistan Cup	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
16/05	Havoqand Uzbekistan Cup	5-0	6-1	6	1	W
04/05	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
28/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
23/04	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-3	10	0	L
18/04	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AGMK vs Nasaf Qarshi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AGMK win (43%). Probabilities: AGMK 43%, draw 28%, Nasaf Qarshi 29%.

How many goals are expected in AGMK vs Nasaf Qarshi?

The model expects 2.83 goals (AGMK 1.57 · Nasaf Qarshi 1.26), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AGMK vs Nasaf Qarshi?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.