Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 09/10, 16:30

Prediction: Nasaf Qarshi vs Dinamo Samarqand

Team pages: Nasaf Qarshi · Dinamo Samarqand

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Nasaf Qarshi1.78

Dinamo Samarqand0.72

1X2

63% 23% 14%

Nasaf Qarshi Draw Dinamo Samarqand

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nasaf Qarshi 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLLWWW

Dinamo Samarqand 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWDDWL

Head-to-head

Nasaf Qarshi 2–4–0 Dinamo Samarqand (6 last)

Dinamo Samarqand1-1Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi0-0Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand2-2Nasaf Qarshi
Dinamo Samarqand1-2Nasaf Qarshi
Nasaf Qarshi1-1Dinamo Samarqand
Nasaf Qarshi2-1Dinamo Samarqand

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nasaf Qarshi 1528 · Dinamo Samarqand 1524

	Nasaf Qarshi	Draw	Dinamo Samarqand
Our model	62%	25%	14%
Market	63%	22%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nasaf Qarshi: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nasaf Qarshi	Dinamo Samarqand
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	1.8 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.10

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:37 +3’	1.42	4.10	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nasaf Qarshi 2–4–0 Dinamo Samarqand

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	1-1 HT 1-0	Nasaf Qarshi
29/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	0-0 HT 0-0	Dinamo Samarqand
06/07/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	2-2 HT 2-1	Nasaf Qarshi
28/10/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Dinamo Samarqand	1-2 HT 0-0	Nasaf Qarshi
25/05/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Nasaf Qarshi	1-1 HT 1-0	Dinamo Samarqand
19/10/23 Uzbekistan Cup	Nasaf Qarshi	2-1 HT 1-0	Dinamo Samarqand

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	22	16	3	3	50	17	51
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	22	14	7	1	39	20	49
3	Navbahor Namangan	22	13	5	4	39	21	44
4	AGMK	22	10	5	7	31	29	35
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	22	10	5	7	36	28	35
6	Nasaf Qarshi	22	9	7	6	33	21	34
7	FK Buxoro	22	10	4	8	32	29	34
8	FK Andijan	22	9	3	10	27	28	30
9	Dinamo Samarqand	22	8	6	8	33	34	30
10	Qizilqum Zarafshon	22	9	2	11	23	30	29
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	22	8	4	10	38	43	28
12	Termez Surkhon	22	7	5	10	19	28	26
13	FC Bunyodkor	22	7	1	14	22	36	22
14	Xorazm Urganch	22	5	6	11	18	32	21
15	FK Kokand 1912	22	4	8	10	19	30	20
16	Mashal Mubarek	22	1	1	20	11	44	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nasaf Qarshi	Dinamo Samarqand
Neftchi Fergana	6-2 W	0-0 D
Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-1 L	1-0 W
Navbahor Namangan	0-1 L	2-3 L
Pakhtakor Tashkent	1-2 L	1-1 D
FK Kokand 1912	0-0 D	1-1 D
AGMK	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Samarqand (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nasaf Qarshi

DWWDLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	2	2	W
09/09	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-0	2	2	W
04/09	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	4-0	6-2	7	3	W
26/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
21/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
08/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
03/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
28/07	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
22/07	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	10	2	D

Dinamo Samarqand

WWDLDWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	2-3	2-3	1	6	L
10/09	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
05/09	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
25/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
19/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
14/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-2	8	1	D
07/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	3	0	L
03/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	3-2	1	4	W
23/07	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	0	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nasaf Qarshi vs Dinamo Samarqand?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nasaf Qarshi win (63%). Probabilities: Nasaf Qarshi 63%, draw 23%, Dinamo Samarqand 14%.

How many goals are expected in Nasaf Qarshi vs Dinamo Samarqand?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Nasaf Qarshi 1.78 · Dinamo Samarqand 0.72), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nasaf Qarshi vs Dinamo Samarqand?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.