Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 18/07, 17:00
Prediction: FK Andijan vs Termez Surkhon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
FK Andijan1.52
Termez Surkhon0.87
1X2
FK Andijan
Draw
Termez Surkhon
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FK Andijan
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Termez Surkhon
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Andijan
2–1–3
Termez Surkhon
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Andijan 1528 · Termez Surkhon 1539
| FK Andijan | Draw | Termez Surkhon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 28% | 20% |
| Market | 52% | 28% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Termez Surkhon: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Andijan | Termez Surkhon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.7 | 2.3 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Andijan 2–1–3 Termez Surkhon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/25 Uzbekistan PFL | Termez Surkhon | 4-0 HT 3-0 | FK Andijan |
| 23/05/25 Uzbekistan PFL | FK Andijan | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Termez Surkhon |
| 17/04/25 Uzbekistan Cup | FK Andijan | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Termez Surkhon |
| 30/08/24 Uzbekistan Cup | FK Andijan | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Termez Surkhon |
| 18/08/24 Uzbekistan PFL | FK Andijan | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Termez Surkhon |
| 16/03/24 Uzbekistan PFL | Termez Surkhon | 2-3 HT 0-1 | FK Andijan |
Standings · Uzbekistan PFL
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fergana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 28 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | FK Buxoro | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Navbahor Namangan | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 20 |
| 5 | FC Bunyodkor | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| 7 | AGMK | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 8 | FK Andijan | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 11 | 16 |
| 9 | Nasaf Qarshi | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| 10 | Xorazm Urganch | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| 11 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 13 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 12 |
| 13 | Dinamo Samarqand | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 11 |
| 14 | FK Kokand 1912 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 11 |
| 15 | Sogdiana Jizzakh | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 9 |
| 16 | Mashal Mubarek | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Andijan | Termez Surkhon |
|---|---|---|
| Nasaf Qarshi | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| AGMK | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Navbahor Namangan | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Mashal Mubarek | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Andijan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 15/05 | Shurtan Uzbekistan Cup |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 04/05 | Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 28/04 | Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/04 | FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 12/04 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 07/04 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 03/04 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 19/03 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
Termez Surkhon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05 | FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/05 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 28/04 | Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL |
0-2 | 2-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 22/04 | Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 17/04 | Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 08/04 | AGMK Uzbekistan PFL |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 04/04 | FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL |
3-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 20/03 | Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Andijan vs Termez Surkhon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Andijan win (52%). Probabilities: FK Andijan 52%, draw 28%, Termez Surkhon 20%.
How many goals are expected in FK Andijan vs Termez Surkhon?
The model expects 2.39 goals (FK Andijan 1.52 · Termez Surkhon 0.87), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Andijan vs Termez Surkhon?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.