Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 09/10, 16:00

Prediction: FK Buxoro vs FK Andijan

Team pages: FK Buxoro · FK Andijan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

FK Buxoro1.37

FK Andijan1.26

1X2

38% 28% 33%

FK Buxoro Draw FK Andijan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Buxoro 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWDLLL

FK Andijan 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLLWWLWL

Head-to-head

FK Buxoro 1–2–3 FK Andijan (6 last)

FK Andijan2-0FK Buxoro
FK Andijan1-1FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro1-1FK Andijan
FK Andijan1-0FK Buxoro
FK Buxoro0-1FK Andijan
FK Buxoro2-0FK Andijan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Buxoro 1490 · FK Andijan 1485

	FK Buxoro	Draw	FK Andijan
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	38%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Andijan: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Buxoro	FK Andijan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.4	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.20

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.51
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.80 → 2.70▼	Pinn 2.99 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:31 +7’	2.25	3.20	2.80
05:16 +4’	2.35▲	3.20	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +42’	2.67	2.97	2.72
00:39 +3’	2.48▼	2.97	2.95▲
14:02 +47’	2.51▲	3.01▲	2.99▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Buxoro 1–2–3 FK Andijan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
01/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
13/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Andijan
01/12/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Buxoro
23/06/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Andijan
28/01/21 Uzbekistan Cup	FK Buxoro	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Andijan

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	23	16	4	3	52	19	52
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	22	14	7	1	39	20	49
3	Navbahor Namangan	22	13	5	4	39	21	44
4	AGMK	22	10	5	7	31	29	35
5	Lokomotiv Tashkent	22	10	5	7	36	28	35
6	Nasaf Qarshi	22	9	7	6	33	21	34
7	FK Buxoro	22	10	4	8	32	29	34
8	FK Andijan	22	9	3	10	27	28	30
9	Dinamo Samarqand	22	8	6	8	33	34	30
10	Qizilqum Zarafshon	22	9	2	11	23	30	29
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	22	8	4	10	38	43	28
12	Termez Surkhon	22	7	5	10	19	28	26
13	FC Bunyodkor	22	7	1	14	22	36	22
14	Xorazm Urganch	23	5	7	11	20	34	22
15	FK Kokand 1912	22	4	8	10	19	30	20
16	Mashal Mubarek	22	1	1	20	11	44	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Buxoro	FK Andijan
FK Kokand 1912	1-1 D	2-1 W
Neftchi Fergana	4-1 W	0-3 L
Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-2 D	0-3 L
Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-1 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Buxoro (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Buxoro

WLWDWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	4	1	L
11/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	2	5	L
05/09	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
24/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
18/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
13/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
06/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-2	4	3	D
01/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
27/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
21/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	3	2	W

FK Andijan

DWDLLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
10/09	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	11	4	W
04/09	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
25/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
13/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-3	7	5	L
06/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
01/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
27/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
22/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	3-3	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Buxoro vs FK Andijan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Buxoro win (38%). Probabilities: FK Buxoro 38%, draw 28%, FK Andijan 33%.

How many goals are expected in FK Buxoro vs FK Andijan?

The model expects 2.63 goals (FK Buxoro 1.37 · FK Andijan 1.26), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Buxoro vs FK Andijan?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.