Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 15/10, 16:00

Prediction: FK Andijan vs Qizilqum Zarafshon

Team pages: FK Andijan · Qizilqum Zarafshon

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

FK Andijan1.48

Qizilqum Zarafshon1.01

1X2

47% 28% 25%

FK Andijan Draw Qizilqum Zarafshon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Andijan 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWLWLL

Qizilqum Zarafshon 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWWLWD

Head-to-head

FK Andijan 1–3–2 Qizilqum Zarafshon (6 last)

Qizilqum Zarafshon2-1FK Andijan
Qizilqum Zarafshon2-1FK Andijan
FK Andijan1-1Qizilqum Zarafshon
FK Andijan0-0Qizilqum Zarafshon
Qizilqum Zarafshon0-3FK Andijan
Qizilqum Zarafshon3-3FK Andijan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Andijan 1461 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1521

	FK Andijan	Draw	Qizilqum Zarafshon
Our model	47%	29%	25%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Qizilqum Zarafshon (rating 1461 vs 1521).
H2H favours Qizilqum Zarafshon: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Andijan	Qizilqum Zarafshon
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.4	2.2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.5	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.25

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.90▲	Pinn 1.98
X	3.40 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25
2	4.00 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.91 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:37 +26’	1.75	3.40	4.00
10:58 +5’	1.65▼	3.50▲	4.50▲
11:59 +5’	1.73▲	3.40▼	4.20▼
15:01 +2’	1.90▲	3.25▼	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:48 +16’	1.76	3.43	4.53
09:34 +32’	1.78▲	3.41▼	4.47▼
10:30 +33’	1.66▼	3.60▲	5.07▲
12:02 +1’	1.81▲	3.35▼	4.43▼
12:50 +13’	1.77▼	3.39▲	4.56▲
14:01 +2’	1.83▲	3.38▼	4.47▼
14:59 +5’	1.98▲	3.22▼	3.91▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Andijan 1–3–2 Qizilqum Zarafshon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Andijan
09/11/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Andijan
19/06/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	1-1 HT 0-1	Qizilqum Zarafshon
10/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Andijan	0-0 HT 0-0	Qizilqum Zarafshon
07/08/24 Uzbekistan Cup	Qizilqum Zarafshon	0-3 HT 0-1	FK Andijan
15/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Qizilqum Zarafshon	3-3 HT 2-1	FK Andijan

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pakhtakor Tashkent	23	15	7	1	42	21	52
2	Neftchi Fergana	23	16	4	3	52	19	52
3	Navbahor Namangan	23	13	6	4	41	23	45
4	Lokomotiv Tashkent	23	11	5	7	39	30	38
5	Nasaf Qarshi	23	10	7	6	35	22	37
6	FK Buxoro	23	11	4	8	35	31	37
7	AGMK	23	10	6	7	33	31	36
8	Dinamo Samarqand	23	8	6	9	34	36	30
9	FK Andijan	23	9	3	11	29	31	30
10	Qizilqum Zarafshon	23	9	3	11	23	30	30
11	Sogdiana Jizzakh	23	8	4	11	40	46	28
12	Termez Surkhon	23	7	6	10	19	28	27
13	FK Kokand 1912	23	5	8	10	22	30	23
14	FC Bunyodkor	23	7	1	15	23	39	22
15	Xorazm Urganch	23	5	7	11	20	34	22
16	Mashal Mubarek	23	1	1	21	11	47	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Andijan	Qizilqum Zarafshon
FK Buxoro	2-3 L	3-2 W
Nasaf Qarshi	1-4 L	1-0 W
Xorazm Urganch	1-0 W	3-1 W
Mashal Mubarek	1-0 W	2-0 W
Neftchi Fergana	0-3 L	0-5 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Qizilqum Zarafshon (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Andijan

WDLLWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-3	5	3	L
20/09	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
10/09	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	11	4	W
04/09	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
25/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
13/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-3	7	5	L
06/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
01/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
27/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	2-0	7	3	W

Qizilqum Zarafshon

DLLWLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
21/09	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
10/09	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
05/09	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-2	1	3	W
26/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
18/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
14/08	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
28/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
23/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Andijan vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Andijan win (47%). Probabilities: FK Andijan 47%, draw 28%, Qizilqum Zarafshon 25%.

How many goals are expected in FK Andijan vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

The model expects 2.5 goals (FK Andijan 1.48 · Qizilqum Zarafshon 1.01), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Andijan vs Qizilqum Zarafshon?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.