Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 09/08, 16:00

Prediction: Hammarby TFF vs FBK Karlstad

Team pages: Hammarby TFF · FBK Karlstad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Hammarby TFF2.31

FBK Karlstad1.19

1X2

62% 20% 18%

Hammarby TFF Draw FBK Karlstad

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hammarby TFF 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWDWW

FBK Karlstad 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWLWLL

Head-to-head

Hammarby TFF 2–1–0 FBK Karlstad (3 last)

FBK Karlstad0-7Hammarby TFF
Hammarby TFF3-3FBK Karlstad
FBK Karlstad0-1Hammarby TFF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hammarby TFF 1602 · FBK Karlstad 1484

	Hammarby TFF	Draw	FBK Karlstad
Our model	62%	21%	18%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby TFF (rating 1602 vs 1484).
H2H favours Hammarby TFF: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hammarby TFF	FBK Karlstad
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.5	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2.9 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:31 +19’	1.44	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hammarby TFF 2–1–0 FBK Karlstad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FBK Karlstad	0-7 HT 0-2	Hammarby TFF
20/10/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Hammarby TFF	3-3 HT 2-2	FBK Karlstad
17/05/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	FBK Karlstad	0-1 HT 0-1	Hammarby TFF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	15	11	2	2	43	12	35
2	IF Karlstad Fotboll	15	10	3	2	24	10	33
3	FC Stockholm Internazionale	15	9	3	3	32	14	30
4	FC Arlanda	15	8	5	2	24	15	29
5	Enkopings SK	16	9	1	6	27	26	28
6	FBK Karlstad	15	7	3	5	23	22	24
7	AFC Eskilstuna	15	6	4	5	24	24	22
8	Karlbergs BK	16	6	3	7	26	25	21
9	Assyriska Föreningen	15	4	5	6	24	29	17
10	Gefle IF	15	5	2	8	19	29	17
11	Umeå FC	15	4	4	7	20	25	16
12	Vasalunds IF	15	4	4	7	21	31	16
13	FC Järfälla	15	4	3	8	21	31	15
14	Sollentuna United FF	15	2	8	5	13	20	14
15	Piteå IF	15	2	3	10	16	34	9
16	IFK Stocksund	15	1	5	9	28	38	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hammarby TFF	FBK Karlstad
FC Arlanda	5-1 W	0-0 D
Karlbergs BK	2-0 W	1-1 D
FC Stockholm Internazionale	3-1 W	1-3 L
Sollentuna United FF	2-0 W	2-0 W
Assyriska Föreningen	4-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby TFF (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Hammarby TFF

WWWWLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	5-1	3	5	W
26/06	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	7-0	8	1	W
18/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
14/06	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
06/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
30/05	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
23/05	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-0	8	7	W
16/05	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-1	4	3	W
13/05	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
09/05	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	4-0	7	5	W

FBK Karlstad

WDDDLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
26/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-7	11	1	L
18/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
14/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
09/06	IK Sturehov Sweden Cup Qualification	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
05/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
31/05	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
23/05	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
17/05	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-1	11	3	D
14/05	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	5-1	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hammarby TFF vs FBK Karlstad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hammarby TFF win (62%). Probabilities: Hammarby TFF 62%, draw 20%, FBK Karlstad 18%.

How many goals are expected in Hammarby TFF vs FBK Karlstad?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Hammarby TFF 2.31 · FBK Karlstad 1.19), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Hammarby TFF vs FBK Karlstad?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.