Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 15/08, 13:00

Prediction: Karlbergs BK vs IFK Stocksund

Team pages: Karlbergs BK · IFK Stocksund

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Karlbergs BK2.21

IFK Stocksund1.46

1X2

54% 22% 24%

Karlbergs BK Draw IFK Stocksund

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Karlbergs BK 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWWWWL

IFK Stocksund 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLLDLW

Head-to-head

Karlbergs BK 5–1–0 IFK Stocksund (6 last)

IFK Stocksund0-2Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK3-2IFK Stocksund
IFK Stocksund0-5Karlbergs BK
IFK Stocksund0-2Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK1-1IFK Stocksund
IFK Stocksund0-1Karlbergs BK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Karlbergs BK 1525 · IFK Stocksund 1468

	Karlbergs BK	Draw	IFK Stocksund
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karlbergs BK (rating 1525 vs 1468).
H2H favours Karlbergs BK: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Karlbergs BK	IFK Stocksund
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	2.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	1.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.10

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:38 +14’	1.67	4.10	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Karlbergs BK 5–1–0 IFK Stocksund

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	IFK Stocksund	0-2 HT 0-1	Karlbergs BK
06/09/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	3-2 HT 1-0	IFK Stocksund
24/06/25 Sweden Cup Qualification	IFK Stocksund	0-5 HT 0-2	Karlbergs BK
25/04/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	IFK Stocksund	0-2 HT 0-2	Karlbergs BK
22/03/25 Club Friendly List	Karlbergs BK	1-1 HT 0-0	IFK Stocksund
13/09/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	IFK Stocksund	0-1 HT 0-0	Karlbergs BK

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby TFF	16	11	3	2	44	13	36
2	IF Karlstad Fotboll	16	11	3	2	28	11	36
3	FC Stockholm Internazionale	16	9	3	4	32	16	30
4	FC Arlanda	16	8	6	2	24	15	30
5	Enkopings SK	16	9	1	6	27	26	28
6	AFC Eskilstuna	16	7	4	5	27	25	25
7	FBK Karlstad	16	7	4	5	24	23	25
8	Karlbergs BK	16	6	3	7	26	25	21
9	Assyriska Föreningen	16	5	5	6	27	29	20
10	Vasalunds IF	16	5	4	7	23	31	19
11	Gefle IF	16	5	2	9	19	34	17
12	Umeå FC	16	4	4	8	21	28	16
13	FC Järfälla	16	4	3	9	22	35	15
14	Sollentuna United FF	16	2	8	6	13	23	14
15	IFK Stocksund	16	2	5	9	33	38	11
16	Piteå IF	16	2	4	10	16	34	10

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Karlbergs BK	IFK Stocksund
Sollentuna United FF	2-1 W	1-1 D
FC Stockholm Internazionale	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Karlbergs BK (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Karlbergs BK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	6	1	L
01/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
21/07	Sollentuna United FF Club Friendly List	1-1	2-1	2	0	W
24/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
18/06	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
14/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
10/06	Unik FK Sweden Cup Qualification	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
04/06	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
31/05	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
23/05	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	3	1	L

IFK Stocksund

DDLWDLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	5-0	6	3	W
01/08	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
25/07	Sollentuna United FF Club Friendly List	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
27/06	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
18/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
13/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-3	7	5	D
08/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	3-1	6-1	1	7	W
04/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden Cup Qualification	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
31/05	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
23/05	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	3-3	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Karlbergs BK vs IFK Stocksund?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Karlbergs BK win (54%). Probabilities: Karlbergs BK 54%, draw 22%, IFK Stocksund 24%.

How many goals are expected in Karlbergs BK vs IFK Stocksund?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Karlbergs BK 2.21 · IFK Stocksund 1.46), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Karlbergs BK vs IFK Stocksund?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.