Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 06/09, 15:00

Prediction: Piteå IF vs Karlbergs BK

Team pages: Piteå IF · Karlbergs BK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Piteå IF1.18

Karlbergs BK1.6

1X2

28% 26% 47%

Piteå IF Draw Karlbergs BK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Piteå IF 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLDDDL

Karlbergs BK 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWWWLWLD

Head-to-head

Piteå IF 0–1–2 Karlbergs BK (3 last)

Karlbergs BK3-1Piteå IF
Piteå IF1-1Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK1-0Piteå IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Piteå IF 1422 · Karlbergs BK 1532

	Piteå IF	Draw	Karlbergs BK
Our model	27%	27%	46%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karlbergs BK (rating 1422 vs 1532).
H2H favours Karlbergs BK: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Piteå IF	Karlbergs BK
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.1	1.9 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.60

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.29
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	1.83 → 1.91▲	Pinn 1.97 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:39 +31’	3.40	3.75	1.83
06:46 +30’	2.90▼	3.60▼	2.05▲
10:21 +5’	3.20▲	3.60	1.91▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:02 +8’	2.92	3.50	2.16
23:06	2.96▲	3.52▲	2.13▼
10:25 +1’	3.29▲	3.57▲	1.97▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Piteå IF 0–1–2 Karlbergs BK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/06/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	3-1 HT 2-0	Piteå IF
01/09/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Piteå IF	1-1 HT 0-1	Karlbergs BK
07/04/24 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	1-0 HT 1-0	Piteå IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	19	12	3	4	41	17	39
2	Hammarby TFF	19	11	5	3	45	15	38
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	19	11	4	4	31	17	37
4	FC Arlanda	19	10	6	3	33	22	36
5	AFC Eskilstuna	19	10	4	5	33	26	34
6	FBK Karlstad	19	9	4	6	31	31	31
7	Assyriska Föreningen	20	8	5	7	34	32	29
8	Enkopings SK	19	9	2	8	27	31	29
9	Karlbergs BK	19	7	4	8	28	28	25
10	Gefle IF	19	7	3	9	25	37	24
11	Vasalunds IF	19	6	5	8	30	38	23
12	Umeå FC	19	5	5	9	24	32	20
13	Sollentuna United FF	19	4	8	7	18	27	20
14	FC Järfälla	19	4	3	12	23	41	15
15	Piteå IF	19	2	6	11	21	40	12
16	IFK Stocksund	20	2	5	13	39	49	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Piteå IF	Karlbergs BK
FBK Karlstad	3-4 L	1-1 D
Hammarby TFF	1-1 D	0-0 D
Vasalunds IF	1-1 D	4-0 W
AFC Eskilstuna	2-2 D	0-3 L
Enkopings SK	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Karlbergs BK (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Piteå IF

DLLDLLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	3-4	8	0	L
23/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
16/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
01/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
24/06	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
21/06	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-2	2	2	D
12/06	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
07/06	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
31/05	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	2-2	0	3	D

Karlbergs BK

DLLWWWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
23/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
15/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
07/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	6	1	L
01/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
24/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
18/06	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
14/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
04/06	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
31/05	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Piteå IF vs Karlbergs BK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Karlbergs BK win (47%). Probabilities: Piteå IF 28%, draw 26%, Karlbergs BK 47%.

How many goals are expected in Piteå IF vs Karlbergs BK?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Piteå IF 1.18 · Karlbergs BK 1.6), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Piteå IF vs Karlbergs BK?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.