Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 12/09, 13:00

Prediction: Karlbergs BK vs FC Arlanda

Team pages: Karlbergs BK · FC Arlanda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Karlbergs BK1.44

FC Arlanda1.59

1X2

34% 26% 41%

Karlbergs BK Draw FC Arlanda

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Karlbergs BK 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Arlanda 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Karlbergs BK 4–1–1 FC Arlanda (6 last)

FC Arlanda1-1Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK1-3FC Arlanda
FC Arlanda0-1Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK2-0FC Arlanda
FC Arlanda1-2Karlbergs BK
FC Arlanda1-2Karlbergs BK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Karlbergs BK 1513 · FC Arlanda 1532

	Karlbergs BK	Draw	FC Arlanda
Our model	34%	26%	40%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Karlbergs BK: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Karlbergs BK	FC Arlanda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.4	1.5 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:51 +5’	2.63	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Karlbergs BK 4–1–1 FC Arlanda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	1-1 HT 0-1	Karlbergs BK
09/08/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	1-3 HT 0-2	FC Arlanda
19/06/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	0-1 HT 0-1	Karlbergs BK
10/09/23 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	Karlbergs BK	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Arlanda
13/05/23 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	FC Arlanda	1-2 HT 0-1	Karlbergs BK
08/08/21 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	FC Arlanda	1-2 HT 1-1	Karlbergs BK

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	20	13	3	4	44	17	42
2	Hammarby TFF	20	11	5	4	45	18	38
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	20	11	4	5	32	19	37
4	AFC Eskilstuna	20	11	4	5	35	27	37
5	FC Arlanda	20	10	6	4	34	24	36
6	FBK Karlstad	20	10	4	6	34	31	34
7	Enkopings SK	20	10	2	8	30	33	32
8	Assyriska Föreningen	20	8	5	7	34	32	29
9	Karlbergs BK	20	7	4	9	28	31	25
10	Gefle IF	20	7	3	10	25	38	24
11	Umeå FC	20	6	5	9	26	33	23
12	Sollentuna United FF	20	5	8	7	19	27	23
13	Vasalunds IF	20	6	5	9	32	41	23
14	Piteå IF	20	3	6	11	24	40	15
15	FC Järfälla	20	4	3	13	23	44	15
16	IFK Stocksund	20	2	5	13	39	49	11

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Karlbergs BK	FC Arlanda
Piteå IF	0-3 L	0-0 D
Hammarby TFF	0-0 D	1-5 L
IFK Stocksund	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Karlbergs BK (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Karlbergs BK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
31/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
23/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
15/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
07/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	6	1	L
01/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
24/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
18/06	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
14/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
04/06	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-3	2	4	L

FC Arlanda

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
29/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
23/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	5-1	5-1	4	3	W
16/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-4	0	1	L
09/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
03/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-5	1	5	L
27/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	0	6	W
18/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
13/06	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
07/06	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Karlbergs BK vs FC Arlanda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Arlanda win (41%). Probabilities: Karlbergs BK 34%, draw 26%, FC Arlanda 41%.

How many goals are expected in Karlbergs BK vs FC Arlanda?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Karlbergs BK 1.44 · FC Arlanda 1.59), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Karlbergs BK vs FC Arlanda?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.