Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: FC Järfälla vs FBK Karlstad

Team pages: FC Järfälla · FBK Karlstad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

FC Järfälla1.42

FBK Karlstad1.91

1X2

28% 25% 48%

FC Järfälla Draw FBK Karlstad

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Järfälla 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLDWLLLLL

FBK Karlstad 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLDWLW

Head-to-head

FC Järfälla 0–1 FBK Karlstad (1 last)

FBK Karlstad2-0FC Järfälla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Järfälla 1392 · FBK Karlstad 1502

	FC Järfälla	Draw	FBK Karlstad
Our model	28%	24%	48%
Market	27%	25%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBK Karlstad (rating 1392 vs 1502).
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Järfälla	FBK Karlstad
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.8	1.4 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 3.5	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.60

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.74 ★
2	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 1.94

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:53 +2’	3.30	3.60	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:52 +3’	3.23	3.74	1.94

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Järfälla 0–0–1 FBK Karlstad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FBK Karlstad	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Järfälla

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	19	12	3	4	41	17	39
2	Hammarby TFF	19	11	5	3	45	15	38
3	IF Karlstad Fotboll	19	11	4	4	31	17	37
4	FC Arlanda	19	10	6	3	33	22	36
5	AFC Eskilstuna	19	10	4	5	33	26	34
6	FBK Karlstad	19	9	4	6	31	31	31
7	Assyriska Föreningen	20	8	5	7	34	32	29
8	Enkopings SK	19	9	2	8	27	31	29
9	Karlbergs BK	19	7	4	8	28	28	25
10	Gefle IF	19	7	3	9	25	37	24
11	Vasalunds IF	19	6	5	8	30	38	23
12	Umeå FC	19	5	5	9	24	32	20
13	Sollentuna United FF	19	4	8	7	18	27	20
14	FC Järfälla	19	4	3	12	23	41	15
15	Piteå IF	19	2	6	11	21	40	12
16	IFK Stocksund	20	2	5	13	39	49	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Järfälla	FBK Karlstad
Assyriska Föreningen	0-2 L	0-2 L
FC Stockholm Internazionale	0-2 L	1-3 L
Sollentuna United FF	1-2 L	2-0 W
IF Karlstad Fotboll	1-4 L	2-3 L
Hammarby TFF	1-1 D	1-1 D
FC Arlanda	2-3 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FBK Karlstad (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Järfälla

LLLDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
21/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
15/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
08/08	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-4	6	2	L
01/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	2	1	L
28/06	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
18/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
13/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-3	4	4	L
08/06	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-3	1-6	1	7	L
03/06	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	3	2	L

FBK Karlstad

DLLWLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	4-3	1	0	W
23/08	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-5	1-5	4	3	L
16/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
09/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
01/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
26/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-7	11	1	L
18/06	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
14/06	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-2	1-3	4	1	L
05/06	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
31/05	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Järfälla vs FBK Karlstad?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FBK Karlstad win (48%). Probabilities: FC Järfälla 28%, draw 25%, FBK Karlstad 48%.

How many goals are expected in FC Järfälla vs FBK Karlstad?

The model expects 3.33 goals (FC Järfälla 1.42 · FBK Karlstad 1.91), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Järfälla vs FBK Karlstad?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.