Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 17/09, 19:30

Prediction: FC Järfälla vs Karlbergs BK

Team pages: FC Järfälla · Karlbergs BK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

FC Järfälla1.31

Karlbergs BK1.62

1X2

30% 26% 44%

FC Järfälla Draw Karlbergs BK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Järfälla 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LDWLLLLLLL

Karlbergs BK 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWLDLW

Head-to-head

FC Järfälla 2–1–2 Karlbergs BK (5 last)

Karlbergs BK1-3FC Järfälla
FC Järfälla1-1Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK0-1FC Järfälla
FC Järfälla1-3Karlbergs BK
Karlbergs BK6-1FC Järfälla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Järfälla 1409 · Karlbergs BK 1513

	FC Järfälla	Draw	Karlbergs BK
Our model	30%	27%	44%
Market	31%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Karlbergs BK (rating 1409 vs 1513).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Järfälla	Karlbergs BK
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.5	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 4.1	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:06 +33’	2.90	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Järfälla 2–1–2 Karlbergs BK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Karlbergs BK	1-3 HT 1-2	FC Järfälla
17/09/23 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	FC Järfälla	1-1 HT 0-0	Karlbergs BK
18/05/23 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	Karlbergs BK	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Järfälla
17/10/21 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	FC Järfälla	1-3 HT 0-1	Karlbergs BK
14/08/21 Sweden 2.div Norra Svealand	Karlbergs BK	6-1 HT 4-1	FC Järfälla

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	21	14	3	4	48	17	45
2	Hammarby TFF	21	12	5	4	46	18	41
3	AFC Eskilstuna	21	12	4	5	36	27	40
4	IF Karlstad Fotboll	21	11	4	6	33	21	37
5	FBK Karlstad	21	11	4	6	36	32	37
6	FC Arlanda	21	10	6	5	34	25	36
7	Enkopings SK	21	11	2	8	32	34	35
8	Assyriska Föreningen	21	8	5	8	35	34	29
9	Karlbergs BK	21	8	4	9	29	31	28
10	Gefle IF	21	8	3	10	28	39	27
11	Sollentuna United FF	21	5	8	8	19	28	23
12	Vasalunds IF	21	6	5	10	33	43	23
13	Umeå FC	21	6	5	10	26	37	23
14	Piteå IF	21	3	6	12	24	41	15
15	FC Järfälla	21	4	3	14	24	47	15
16	IFK Stocksund	21	3	5	13	41	50	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Järfälla	Karlbergs BK
Hammarby TFF	1-1 D	0-0 D
FC Arlanda	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Karlbergs BK (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Järfälla

LDWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
05/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-3	6	0	L
29/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
21/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
15/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
08/08	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-4	6	2	L
01/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	2	1	L
28/06	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
18/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
13/06	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-3	4	4	L

Karlbergs BK

LWWWLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
06/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
31/08	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
23/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
15/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
07/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	6	1	L
01/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
24/06	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
18/06	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
14/06	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Järfälla vs Karlbergs BK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Karlbergs BK win (44%). Probabilities: FC Järfälla 30%, draw 26%, Karlbergs BK 44%.

How many goals are expected in FC Järfälla vs Karlbergs BK?

The model expects 2.92 goals (FC Järfälla 1.31 · Karlbergs BK 1.62), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Järfälla vs Karlbergs BK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.