Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: FC Järfälla vs Umeå FC

Team pages: FC Järfälla · Umeå FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

FC Järfälla1.57

Umeå FC1.79

1X2

33% 25% 42%

FC Järfälla Draw Umeå FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Järfälla 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLLD

Umeå FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLWWLW

Head-to-head

FC Järfälla 1–0 Umeå FC (1 last)

Umeå FC1-3FC Järfälla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Järfälla 1427 · Umeå FC 1499

	FC Järfälla	Draw	Umeå FC
Our model	33%	25%	42%
Market	33%	25%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Umeå FC (rating 1427 vs 1499).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Järfälla	Umeå FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.4	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 5	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.70

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.75▼	Bet365 2.75
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.87 ★
2	2.05 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.18

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:48 +5’	2.88	3.70	2.05
08:01 +7’	2.75▼	3.70	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:27 +16’	2.67	3.88	2.18
15:03 +79’	2.67	3.87▼	2.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Järfälla 1–0–0 Umeå FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	Umeå FC	1-3 HT 1-1	FC Järfälla

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	25	18	3	4	60	20	57
2	FC Arlanda	25	14	6	5	46	28	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	25	14	5	6	47	34	47
4	Hammarby TFF	25	13	6	6	51	25	45
5	FBK Karlstad	25	12	7	6	41	35	43
6	Enkopings SK	25	13	3	9	38	40	42
7	IF Karlstad Fotboll	25	11	8	6	37	25	41
8	Assyriska Föreningen	25	9	5	11	43	45	32
9	Umeå FC	25	9	5	11	34	41	32
10	Karlbergs BK	25	9	5	11	33	41	32
11	Gefle IF	25	9	3	13	29	43	30
12	Sollentuna United FF	26	6	9	11	27	36	27
13	Vasalunds IF	25	7	6	12	36	52	27
14	Piteå IF	25	5	7	13	30	46	22
15	FC Järfälla	25	5	4	16	33	55	19
16	IFK Stocksund	26	3	6	17	45	64	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Järfälla	Umeå FC
IFK Stocksund	1-1 D	3-0 W
AFC Eskilstuna	2-4 L	1-3 L
Piteå IF	1-3 L	2-0 W
Gefle IF	1-3 L	0-2 L
FBK Karlstad	0-3 L	1-3 L
FC Stockholm Internazionale	0-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Umeå FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Järfälla

LLLLLLWLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
26/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	2-4	5	5	L
20/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-3	6	7	L
17/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
12/09	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
05/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-3	6	0	L
29/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
21/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
15/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
08/08	IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	1-4	6	2	L

Umeå FC

LLDWWLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
27/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	5	1	L
20/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	3-0	6	1	W
16/09	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
13/09	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
06/09	FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
30/08	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/08	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
09/08	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Järfälla vs Umeå FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Umeå FC win (42%). Probabilities: FC Järfälla 33%, draw 25%, Umeå FC 42%.

How many goals are expected in FC Järfälla vs Umeå FC?

The model expects 3.37 goals (FC Järfälla 1.57 · Umeå FC 1.79), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Järfälla vs Umeå FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.