Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: IF Karlstad Fotboll vs FC Arlanda

Team pages: IF Karlstad Fotboll · FC Arlanda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

IF Karlstad Fotboll1.95

FC Arlanda1.34

1X2

50% 25% 25%

IF Karlstad Fotboll Draw FC Arlanda

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

IF Karlstad Fotboll 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLDDDD

FC Arlanda 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWLLWWWW

Head-to-head

IF Karlstad Fotboll 2–1 FC Arlanda (3 last)

FC Arlanda1-0IF Karlstad Fotboll
FC Arlanda3-5IF Karlstad Fotboll
IF Karlstad Fotboll3-0FC Arlanda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IF Karlstad Fotboll 1458 · FC Arlanda 1533

	IF Karlstad Fotboll	Draw	FC Arlanda
Our model	51%	24%	26%
Market	50%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Arlanda (rating 1458 vs 1533).
H2H favours IF Karlstad Fotboll: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IF Karlstad Fotboll	FC Arlanda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	2.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:17 +6’	1.80	3.60	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IF Karlstad Fotboll 2–0–1 FC Arlanda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	1-0 HT 0-0	IF Karlstad Fotboll
01/11/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	FC Arlanda	3-5 HT 1-1	IF Karlstad Fotboll
29/05/25 Sweden 1.div Norra	IF Karlstad Fotboll	3-0 HT 0-0	FC Arlanda

Standings · Sweden 1.div Norra · Ettan 2026, Norra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Stockholm Internazionale	25	18	3	4	60	20	57
2	FC Arlanda	25	14	6	5	46	28	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	25	14	5	6	47	34	47
4	Hammarby TFF	25	13	6	6	51	25	45
5	FBK Karlstad	25	12	7	6	41	35	43
6	Enkopings SK	25	13	3	9	38	40	42
7	IF Karlstad Fotboll	25	11	8	6	37	25	41
8	Assyriska Föreningen	25	9	5	11	43	45	32
9	Umeå FC	25	9	5	11	34	41	32
10	Karlbergs BK	25	9	5	11	33	41	32
11	Gefle IF	25	9	3	13	29	43	30
12	Vasalunds IF	25	7	6	12	36	52	27
13	Sollentuna United FF	25	5	9	11	24	36	24
14	Piteå IF	25	5	7	13	30	46	22
15	FC Järfälla	25	5	4	16	33	55	19
16	IFK Stocksund	25	3	6	16	45	61	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IF Karlstad Fotboll	FC Arlanda
Piteå IF	1-1 D	0-0 D
Karlbergs BK	1-1 D	0-1 L
Enkopings SK	2-2 D	2-0 W
FBK Karlstad	0-0 D	5-1 W
IFK Stocksund	1-2 L	3-2 W
Gefle IF	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 5 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Arlanda (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IF Karlstad Fotboll

WLLDLLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
27/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
19/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
16/09	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
12/09	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-2	10	7	L
05/09	AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
29/08	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
22/08	Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
15/08	Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	4-1	6	2	W

FC Arlanda

DLWWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
27/09	Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
21/09	Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra	3-0	4-2	1	2	W
16/09	Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
12/09	Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
29/08	IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
23/08	FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra	5-1	5-1	4	3	W
16/08	FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra	1-1	1-4	0	1	L
09/08	Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra	0-0	0-0	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IF Karlstad Fotboll vs FC Arlanda?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IF Karlstad Fotboll win (50%). Probabilities: IF Karlstad Fotboll 50%, draw 25%, FC Arlanda 25%.

How many goals are expected in IF Karlstad Fotboll vs FC Arlanda?

The model expects 3.29 goals (IF Karlstad Fotboll 1.95 · FC Arlanda 1.34), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IF Karlstad Fotboll vs FC Arlanda?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.