Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 21/08, 21:15

Prediction: Grotta Seltjarnarnes vs IR Reykjavik

Team pages: Grotta Seltjarnarnes · IR Reykjavik

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Grotta Seltjarnarnes1.81

IR Reykjavik1.57

1X2

43% 25% 33%

Grotta Seltjarnarnes Draw IR Reykjavik

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Grotta Seltjarnarnes 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWWDLD

IR Reykjavik 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDWWLW

Head-to-head

Grotta Seltjarnarnes 0–5 IR Reykjavik (5 last)

IR Reykjavik2-1Grotta Seltjarnarnes
IR Reykjavik2-1Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Grotta Seltjarnarnes1-3IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik3-1Grotta Seltjarnarnes
Grotta Seltjarnarnes1-2IR Reykjavik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grotta Seltjarnarnes 1479 · IR Reykjavik 1499

	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	Draw	IR Reykjavik
Our model	43%	25%	33%
Market	43%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours IR Reykjavik: 5-0-0.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	IR Reykjavik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.4	2.6 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.24 ★
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.83
2	2.70 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:40 +1’	2.05	3.75	2.70
15:22 +3’	2.05	3.60▼	2.80▲
23:19 +3’	2.10▲	3.60	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +2’	2.41	3.80	2.50
18:36 +4’	2.30▼	3.80	2.63▲
23:22	2.24▼	3.83▲	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grotta Seltjarnarnes 0–0–5 IR Reykjavik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Iceland 1 Deild	IR Reykjavik	2-1 HT 0-0	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
08/09/24 Iceland 1 Deild	IR Reykjavik	2-1 HT 1-0	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
26/06/24 Iceland 1 Deild	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	1-3 HT 0-0	IR Reykjavik
17/08/17 Iceland 1 Deild	IR Reykjavik	3-1 HT 1-0	Grotta Seltjarnarnes
08/06/17 Iceland 1 Deild	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	1-2 HT 1-1	IR Reykjavik

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Throttur Reykjavik	19	11	4	4	41	20	37
2	Afturelding	18	11	3	4	53	31	36
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	19	11	1	7	39	32	34
4	HK Kopavogur	19	10	2	7	44	35	32
5	Njardvik	19	10	2	7	32	26	32
6	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	18	8	3	7	34	33	27
7	Leiknir Reykjavik	19	7	4	8	30	28	25
8	IF Vestri	19	7	3	9	28	39	24
9	IR Reykjavik	19	6	4	9	33	40	22
10	Grindavik	19	4	9	6	19	25	21
11	Volsungur	19	5	5	9	27	39	20
12	KF Aegir	19	2	2	15	22	54	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	IR Reykjavik
Grindavik	0-0 D	0-0 D
Njardvik	1-4 L	3-1 W
Throttur Reykjavik	1-1 D	1-1 D
IF Vestri	3-0 W	0-1 L
KF Aegir	6-1 W	3-2 W
Leiknir Reykjavik	1-0 W	1-2 L
HK Kopavogur	2-1 W	1-5 L
Volsungur	2-2 D	4-4 D
Fylkir Reykjavik	2-5 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Grotta Seltjarnarnes (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grotta Seltjarnarnes

LDWWLWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
13/08	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	1-4	1-4	5	2	L
08/08	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
03/08	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
18/07	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	6-1	7	0	W
14/07	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	1-2	9	2	L
10/07	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
03/07	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	2-1	2-1	6	10	W
27/06	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
21/06	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	2-0	2-5	4	0	L

IR Reykjavik

DLLDLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
13/08	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
06/08	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	3-2	10	4	W
25/07	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
18/07	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
14/07	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	1-5	6	2	L
10/07	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
03/07	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
26/06	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-2	7	9	L
21/06	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	3-1	4-4	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grotta Seltjarnarnes vs IR Reykjavik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Grotta Seltjarnarnes win (43%). Probabilities: Grotta Seltjarnarnes 43%, draw 25%, IR Reykjavik 33%.

How many goals are expected in Grotta Seltjarnarnes vs IR Reykjavik?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Grotta Seltjarnarnes 1.81 · IR Reykjavik 1.57), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Grotta Seltjarnarnes vs IR Reykjavik?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.