Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 28/08, 21:15

Prediction: Throttur Reykjavik vs KF Aegir

Team pages: Throttur Reykjavik · KF Aegir

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.36Total

Throttur Reykjavik3.18

KF Aegir1.18

1X2

82% 11% 7%

Throttur Reykjavik Draw KF Aegir

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Throttur Reykjavik 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWWWDLWL

KF Aegir 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Throttur Reykjavik 4–1–1 KF Aegir (6 last)

KF Aegir1-3Throttur Reykjavik
KF Aegir2-2Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik3-1KF Aegir
Throttur Reykjavik2-1KF Aegir
KF Aegir3-0Throttur Reykjavik
KF Aegir0-4Throttur Reykjavik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Throttur Reykjavik 1534 · KF Aegir 1364

	Throttur Reykjavik	Draw	KF Aegir
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	86%	9%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 4.36 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Throttur Reykjavik (rating 1534 vs 1364).
H2H favours Throttur Reykjavik: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Throttur Reykjavik	KF Aegir
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1 / 4.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 2.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/10/90%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	1.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.08

X10.00

221.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.98

2 (+3)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.82

Under 4.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.08▼	Pinn 1.09 ★
X	9.00 → 10.00▲	Bet365 10.00
2	13.00 → 21.00▲	Bet365 21.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:06 +4’	1.13	9.00	13.00
12:50 +26’	1.08▼	10.00▲	21.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:16	1.09	9.99	12.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Throttur Reykjavik 4–1–1 KF Aegir

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Iceland 1 Deild	KF Aegir	1-3 HT 1-0	Throttur Reykjavik
27/07/23 Iceland 1 Deild	KF Aegir	2-2 HT 1-2	Throttur Reykjavik
21/05/23 Iceland 1 Deild	Throttur Reykjavik	3-1 HT 1-1	KF Aegir
17/09/22 Iceland 2 Deild	Throttur Reykjavik	2-1	KF Aegir
08/07/22 Iceland 2 Deild	KF Aegir	3-0 HT 2-0	Throttur Reykjavik
30/04/19 Iceland Cup	KF Aegir	0-4 HT 0-0	Throttur Reykjavik

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	20	13	3	4	62	31	42
2	Throttur Reykjavik	20	11	4	5	41	23	37
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	20	12	1	7	45	33	37
4	HK Kopavogur	20	11	2	7	47	35	35
5	Njardvik	20	11	2	7	36	26	35
6	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	20	8	3	9	35	38	27
7	IF Vestri	20	8	3	9	30	39	27
8	Leiknir Reykjavik	20	7	4	9	30	30	25
9	IR Reykjavik	20	7	4	9	36	41	25
10	Grindavik	20	4	9	7	20	31	21
11	Volsungur	20	5	5	10	27	43	20
12	KF Aegir	20	2	2	16	22	61	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Throttur Reykjavik	KF Aegir
HK Kopavogur	0-3 L	3-4 L
Fylkir Reykjavik	3-1 W	2-4 L
Grindavik	1-2 L	0-0 D
Grotta Seltjarnarnes	1-1 D	1-6 L
Afturelding	4-1 W	0-7 L
Leiknir Reykjavik	5-1 W	1-6 L
Volsungur	1-0 W	0-2 L
IR Reykjavik	1-1 D	2-3 L
Njardvik	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: Throttur Reykjavik (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Throttur Reykjavik

DLDWWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
17/08	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	2-0	3-1	1	7	W
13/08	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
08/08	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
29/07	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	3-0	4-1	4	4	W
23/07	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	2-0	5-1	8	5	W
18/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
10/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
03/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
27/06	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	1-1	8	4	D

KF Aegir

DLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	0-7	0	3	L
17/08	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-4	1-6	5	2	L
13/08	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
06/08	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	2-3	2	4	L
28/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
18/07	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	1-6	11	0	L
10/07	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	3-4	3-4	2	3	L
03/07	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-4	2-4	7	2	L
29/06	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	1-2	1-8	1	1	L
26/06	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Throttur Reykjavik vs KF Aegir?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Throttur Reykjavik win (82%). Probabilities: Throttur Reykjavik 82%, draw 11%, KF Aegir 7%.

How many goals are expected in Throttur Reykjavik vs KF Aegir?

The model expects 4.36 goals (Throttur Reykjavik 3.18 · KF Aegir 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Throttur Reykjavik vs KF Aegir?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.