Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Leiknir Reykjavik vs Njardvik

Team pages: Leiknir Reykjavik · Njardvik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Leiknir Reykjavik1.34

Njardvik2.06

1X2

24% 24% 53%

Leiknir Reykjavik Draw Njardvik

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Leiknir Reykjavik 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Njardvik 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Leiknir Reykjavik 1–1–4 Njardvik (6 last)

Njardvik1-0Leiknir Reykjavik
Njardvik3-1Leiknir Reykjavik
Leiknir Reykjavik1-1Njardvik
Njardvik3-2Leiknir Reykjavik
Leiknir Reykjavik1-2Njardvik
Njardvik2-4Leiknir Reykjavik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leiknir Reykjavik 1446 · Njardvik 1562

	Leiknir Reykjavik	Draw	Njardvik
Our model	24%	23%	53%
Market	24%	24%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Njardvik (rating 1446 vs 1562).
H2H favours Njardvik: 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leiknir Reykjavik	Njardvik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	2.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.4	3 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.75

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
X	3.60 → 3.75▲	Pinn 4.43 ★
2	1.90 → 1.70▼	Pinn 1.71

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:06 +12’	3.20	3.60	1.90
13:19 +8’	3.80▲	3.75▲	1.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +1’	3.63	4.43	1.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leiknir Reykjavik 1–1–4 Njardvik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/06/26 Iceland 1 Deild	Njardvik	1-0 HT 1-0	Leiknir Reykjavik
29/08/25 Iceland 1 Deild	Njardvik	3-1 HT 1-0	Leiknir Reykjavik
20/06/25 Iceland 1 Deild	Leiknir Reykjavik	1-1 HT 0-1	Njardvik
18/07/24 Iceland 1 Deild	Njardvik	3-2 HT 2-1	Leiknir Reykjavik
03/05/24 Iceland 1 Deild	Leiknir Reykjavik	1-2 HT 0-2	Njardvik
02/09/23 Iceland 1 Deild	Njardvik	2-4 HT 1-2	Leiknir Reykjavik

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	20	13	3	4	62	31	42
2	Throttur Reykjavik	20	11	4	5	41	23	37
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	20	12	1	7	45	33	37
4	HK Kopavogur	20	11	2	7	47	35	35
5	Njardvik	20	11	2	7	36	26	35
6	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	20	8	3	9	35	38	27
7	IF Vestri	20	8	3	9	30	39	27
8	Leiknir Reykjavik	20	7	4	9	30	30	25
9	IR Reykjavik	20	7	4	9	36	41	25
10	Grindavik	20	4	9	7	20	31	21
11	Volsungur	20	5	5	10	27	43	20
12	KF Aegir	20	2	2	16	22	61	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leiknir Reykjavik	Njardvik
IF Vestri	0-2 L	3-1 W
KF Aegir	6-1 W	1-0 W
HK Kopavogur	1-2 L	3-2 W
Fylkir Reykjavik	3-0 W	1-4 L
Grindavik	0-1 L	5-4 W
Throttur Reykjavik	1-5 L	1-0 W
Afturelding	2-3 L	0-2 L
Grotta Seltjarnarnes	0-1 L	4-1 W
Volsungur	3-3 D	4-0 W
IR Reykjavik	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	7 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Njardvik (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leiknir Reykjavik

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
17/08	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	4-1	6-1	3	2	W
13/08	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-2	5	6	L
07/08	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
29/07	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
23/07	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	1-5	7	5	L
16/07	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	1-2	2-3	4	3	L
10/07	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-1	11	2	L
04/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	3-3	2	8	D
26/06	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	2-1	16	5	W

Njardvik

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
17/08	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	1-3	12	4	L
13/08	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	4-1	4-1	5	2	W
08/08	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	3-1	3	1	W
28/07	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
24/07	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	3-2	10	3	W
17/07	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	1-4	2	4	L
10/07	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	3-3	5-4	6	4	W
03/07	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-0	15	6	W
26/06	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leiknir Reykjavik vs Njardvik?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Njardvik win (53%). Probabilities: Leiknir Reykjavik 24%, draw 24%, Njardvik 53%.

How many goals are expected in Leiknir Reykjavik vs Njardvik?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Leiknir Reykjavik 1.34 · Njardvik 2.06), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Leiknir Reykjavik vs Njardvik?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.