Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Afturelding vs IF Vestri

Team pages: Afturelding · IF Vestri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.03Total

Afturelding2.84

IF Vestri1.18

1X2

71% 16% 13%

Afturelding Draw IF Vestri

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Afturelding 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDDWW

IF Vestri 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDDLLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Afturelding 0–4–2 IF Vestri (6 last)

IF Vestri2-0Afturelding
Afturelding1-1IF Vestri
Afturelding1-1IF Vestri
IF Vestri2-0Afturelding
IF Vestri0-0Afturelding
IF Vestri2-2Afturelding

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Afturelding 1577 · IF Vestri 1450

	Afturelding	Draw	IF Vestri
Our model	71%	16%	13%
Market	71%	16%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 4.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Afturelding (rating 1577 vs 1450).
H2H favours IF Vestri: 2-4-0.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Afturelding	IF Vestri
Goals for / against (FT)	3.7 / 1.4	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.8	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.5	1.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Pinn 1.27
X	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 6.49 ★
2	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 7.12

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:15 +3’	1.25	5.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +1’	1.27	6.49	7.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Afturelding 0–4–2 IF Vestri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Iceland 1 Deild	IF Vestri	2-0 HT 0-0	Afturelding
19/10/25 Iceland Premier League	Afturelding	1-1 HT 0-0	IF Vestri
06/08/25 Iceland Premier League	Afturelding	1-1 HT 0-1	IF Vestri
10/05/25 Iceland Premier League	IF Vestri	2-0 HT 1-0	Afturelding
30/09/23 Iceland 1 Deild	IF Vestri	0-0 HT 0-0	Afturelding
16/08/23 Iceland 1 Deild	IF Vestri	2-2 HT 2-0	Afturelding

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	20	13	3	4	62	31	42
2	Throttur Reykjavik	20	11	4	5	41	23	37
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	20	12	1	7	45	33	37
4	HK Kopavogur	20	11	2	7	47	35	35
5	Njardvik	20	11	2	7	36	26	35
6	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	20	8	3	9	35	38	27
7	IF Vestri	20	8	3	9	30	39	27
8	Leiknir Reykjavik	20	7	4	9	30	30	25
9	IR Reykjavik	20	7	4	9	36	41	25
10	Grindavik	20	4	9	7	20	31	21
11	Volsungur	20	5	5	10	27	43	20
12	KF Aegir	20	2	2	16	22	61	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Afturelding	IF Vestri
Grotta Seltjarnarnes	2-0 W	0-3 L
HK Kopavogur	2-2 D	2-6 L
Fylkir Reykjavik	3-3 D	2-5 L
Grindavik	4-1 W	0-0 D
Throttur Reykjavik	1-4 L	1-1 D
Leiknir Reykjavik	3-2 W	2-0 W
Volsungur	6-1 W	0-2 L
IR Reykjavik	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Afturelding (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Afturelding

WWWWLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	2-0	12	6	W
21/08	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	2-0	7-0	12	3	W
17/08	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
13/08	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	3-3	5	4	D
07/08	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	4-1	6	2	W
29/07	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-3	1-4	6	4	L
16/07	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
11/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	4-1	6-1	4	9	W
03/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/06	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	2-1	8-1	13	1	W

IF Vestri

WDDLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
17/08	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
13/08	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
08/08	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
03/08	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	0-3	12	4	L
20/07	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	0-4	2-6	2	1	L
13/07	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-5	2-5	7	4	L
04/07	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
27/06	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
21/06	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Afturelding vs IF Vestri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Afturelding win (71%). Probabilities: Afturelding 71%, draw 16%, IF Vestri 13%.

How many goals are expected in Afturelding vs IF Vestri?

The model expects 4.03 goals (Afturelding 2.84 · IF Vestri 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Afturelding vs IF Vestri?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.